The Giants are in the Post Season Because...Even Year

It is hard to explain what to make of the 2016 San Francisco Giants. They were the best team in the game at the All-Star break, and one of the worst in the game since. Yet, here we are in October, in 2016, and the Giants are back in the playoffs. Is it their pitching? Is it their defense? Is it their timely hitting? Or is it the year on the calendar.

The Giants have done this before. In 2010 and 2014, they waited until the final day of the regular season to clinch a playoff berth. They won the National League West in 2010 on the final day of the season, beating the San Diego Padres in a thriller, and in 2014, they made it in as a Wild Card team, having to travel to Pittsburgh for a one game playoff. Two years later, they are back in the same spot all over again, except this time they are in New York.

The Giants experience is clear. They have several players with multiple World Series rings and heading into tonight's game, there should be confidence in the visitor locker room. However, momentum is only as good as the next day's starting pitcher and the Mets have Noah Syndergaard going tonight. The Giants have their own mythical figure in Madison Bumgarner, but Thor, as he's known in Gotham City, has become God-like in his own right this season. Winning Game 3 of the World Series last year proved that Syndergaard can succeed in October. Bumgarner's track record has become the book of legend.

So do the defending NL Pennant winning Mets dethrone the inevitability of "Even Year Magic?" That will be the question.

Why the Cubs Should be Scared of the Giants and Why They Should Not

The San Francisco Giants have had two seasons in 2016. The 1st half was borderline dominant with elite pitching, superb defense and timely hitting. The Giants finished off the first half with the best record in baseball and had me declaring they were the best team in baseball.

As the Giants headed into the second half of the season, the playoffs seemed a certainty.

Then came the second half of the season, and after being swept in San Diego, the roller coaster never seemed to stop going down. After a 26-42 record in the 2nd half, the Giants needed to win four straight to make the second wild card game. After starting the season 57-33, nobody anticipated having to scratch and claw for 30 more wins.

But the Giants are in the dance, which is what they have been preaching the entire second half. "If we can just get in, we can make some noise." That has been the mantra. But, by losing to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West, they are now forced to face the New York Mets in New York for the right to play beyond a one game playoff.

So why should the Cubs be scared of this Giants team? Well, it always starts with pitching. Pitching and defense has been the Giants calling card since their 2010 World Series run and it is no different this year. Both Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto will get Cy Young votes and deservedly so. They have both been aces for a team that has lost multiple aces to injury and performance since 2010. With Tim Lincecum gone and Matt Cain struggling to stay healthy, the Giants have rallied around Bumgarner and free agent acquisition Cueto to lead this team. The additions of Jeff Samardzija and Matt Moore have also given the Giants innings eaters with strikeout stuff to lead them into the post-season. The Giants have proven in their previous playoff runs that powerful lineups like the Cubs have can become nearly obsolete by elite pitching. The Philadelphia Phillies, Texas Rangers and Detroit Tigers and others found that out in recent Octobers.

So why should the Cubs remain confident? Well it starts with the rest of the Giants pitching. The Giants blew more leads than any team in baseball and their bullpen was at the heart of their problems all season. Santiago Casilla is now their former closer after blowing nine saves himself. Former closer, Sergio Romo has returned to the ninth inning and performed well, but the majority of the Giants bullpen has struggled. Veterans Javier Lopez, Casilla and Romo have had their ups and downs and young pitchers like Derek Law, Hunter Strickland and Josh Osich have shown their inexperience at times.

Winning or losing in the National League Divisional Series will come down to pitching and who throws the ball better. Can Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks and Jake Arrieta outpitch the Giants staff, and will Aroldis Chapman be the difference in the late innings? October is all about pitching and the Giants will scare any team in baseball if their pitching at a championship level.

The San Francisco Giants are the Best Team in Baseball

We are at the halfway point of the season, and heading into the All-Star break, no team in baseball has a better record than the San Francisco Giants. At 57-33, they have a better record than any of the championship teams in recent years. It is certainly starting to look like that "Even Year Magic" has some merit to it after all.

The #SFGiants are 57-33 (.633). It is their best start through 90 games played since 1993, 60-30 (.667). They finished 103-59 (.636).

— Ryan M. Spaeder (@theaceofspaeder) July 11, 2016

The Giants are wining with pitching. They are led by All-Stars Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto. Bumgarner has the numbers to back up being the team's ace, but Cueto has actually been statistically better. Cueto is 13-1 with a 2.47 earned run average and 115 strikeouts. "Johnny Beisbol" might already be the best free agent signing by the Giants since Barry Bonds.

The Giants have eight complete games (Cueto has 4, Bumgarner has 3). No other NL team has more than 3. — Andrew Baggarly (@extrabaggs) July 11, 2016

The Giants are winning despite only 50 games so far from Hunter Pence, who has been out with an oblique injury as well as a hamstring injury and 58 games from Angel Pagan, who has also been out with various injuries. Pence and Pagan have been a huge part of what has made the Giants offense work the last several years, and yet the Giants have had to rely on young players from their system to help fill the void. Rookies Mac Williamson and Jarrett Parker have been called up this season to play the outfield and their contributions have helped continue the team's winning ways.

The infield is just as unhealthy, with Joe Panik and Matt Duffy each playing only 70 games so far this season. Both are still out as the team heads to the All-Star break. "The Brandons," Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford, have picked up the offensive slack, along with the team's best hitter Buster Posey. Posey, who is starting at catcher once again in the All-Star game for the National League, is expected to be the best bat in the Giants lineup. What might be more surprising is that Belt has actually had the better year so far. He leads the team in batting average, on base percentage and slugging percentage. He has certainly earned his first trip to the Midsummer Classic.

The Giants bullpen has struggled mightily all season, blowing 17 leads overall. Sergio Romo, who has been one of the best relief pitchers for the Giants in their championship years, was also hurt for most of the 1st half of the season. Romo has only seven appearances, where rookies Josh Osich and Hunter Strickland have 43 and 41 respectively. Relying on young, unproven arms has made things difficult for manager Bruce Bochy in the late innings. Closer Santiago Casilla has four blown saves, but he also has converted 21 saves with a 2.86 ERA. The team is still the hottest team in baseball heading into the break.

40-15 since May 11

🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 — #SFGStats (@SFG_Stats) July 11, 2016

In 2011, 2013 and 2015, injuries were one of the reasons the Giants missed the playoffs. So how do the 2016 Giants have the best record in baseball despite missing so many key players? The Giants have had dominant pitching before, but the staff has been especially good this year. Bumgarner and Cueto have led the way, but the team's other big free agent signing, Jeff Samardzija, has also been excellent. I wrote earlier this season how strong Bumgarner, Cueto and Samardzija has been historically in Giants history. Jake Peavy has had a roller coaster first half. Peavy's first nine starts were rough and fans were clamoring for Peavy to be sent packing and the team was wondering what to do with the veteran. His next nine starts were excellent and has re-established Peavy as one of the team's most reliable pitchers. As I noted on Twitter Sunday, Peavy has had a tale of two seasons already in 2016.

Jake Peavy in 2016: 1st 9 starts: 41.2 IP, 38 ER, an 8.21 ERA & 1.917 WHIP Next 9 starts: 52 IP, 15 ER, a 2.60 ERA & 1.096 WHIP — Candlestick Will (@CandlestickWill) July 11, 2016

Matt Cain has also had a rough season so far, as well as multiple trips to the disabled list. I wrote more about Peavy and Cain's early struggles in an article earlier this season. Minor league free agent Albert Suarez has stepped in during Cain's absence and really helped solidify the rotation.

That's the other huge component to this year's steady play is the contribution made by several minor league call-ups. Conor Gillaspie, Ramiro Pena, Grant Green and Ruben Tejada have stepped up and helped the Giants find ways to win. Each has been let go by other organizations and are embracing this chance to be a part of a pennant race.

Ultimately, having the best record in the game means very little in July. It will only matter if the record at the end of the season is good enough for a playoff berth. If 2016 is going to be another magical even year for the Giants, they will have to keep this momentum into the Fall. Getting healthy could be as important as any trade they could make, but don't be surprised if the Giants front office looks to address their bullpen before the trade deadline. All things considered, there isn't much to complain about when you are the best team in baseball.

The Giants Big Three are Historically Good Already

The San Francisco Giants went into the off-season with a desire to improve their starting pitching. Bobby Evans went out and signed Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto to help shore up a staff that had trouble pitching deep into games. When asked about why the team signed the two right handed pitchers, both were labeled as "innings eaters."

Cueto and Samardzija have done much more than that. Along with Madison Bumgarner, all three have an ERA under three, and are a combined 20-5 in their 30 starts. These three pitchers are the main reason the Giants are in first place and have won 12 out of their last 13 games.

Through 10 starts …

Bumgarner: 6-2, 2.17 ERA, 66 1/3 innings Cueto: 7-1, 2.38 ERA, 75 2/3 innings Samardzija: 7-2, 2.54 ERA, 71 innings — Alex Pavlovic (@AlexPavlovic) May 25, 2016

If you look at a pitchers Game Score, anything over 57 is considered excellent. For more on what Game Score is, you can refer to Beyond the Box Score here. Using Game Score to look at Giants history, no pitching staff has pitched this well through 48 games since 1969. That staff included Hall of Famers Juan Marichal and Gaylord Perry. Marichal, Perry and Mike McCormick combined for 18 starts of 60 or higher in 1969. The Giants top three pitchers in 2016 now have 22 starts with a Game Score of 60 or higher this season. In those starts, the staff is 17-2. In more recent history, the Giants championship staffs in 2010, 2012, and 2014 didn't have as many strong starts as this 2016 club has. The entire starting staff in 2016 so far has 25 games of 60 or more with Matt Cain pitching two and Jake Peavy pitching one. The 2010 staff had 23 games of 60 or higher to this point in the season, while the other two championship teams have less as a group than just Bumgarner, Cueto and Samardzija. The Giants top three pitchers are also in the top 10 in all of baseball for their total Game score.

May 25 GSc Leaderboard: 1. Kershaw 2. Arrieta 3. Sale 4. Cueto 5. Syndergaard 6. Strasburg 7. Pomeranz 8. Bumgarner 9. Samardzija 10. Nola — Pitcher Game Score (@SPGameScore) May 25, 2016

The Giants were expecting their two prized free agent signings to help take the pressure off of incumbent starters Bumgarner, Cain and Peavy. But it was also to take pressure off a bullpen that was overworked in 2015. Both Sergio Romo and George Kontos, who were used heavily last season, have already been to the disabled list this season. The team also has put added responsibility on young arms like Josh Osich and Hunter Strickland.

Regardless of the reasons the Giants brought them in, it is clear that Cueto and Samardzija have been as good as any free agent signing this season and that we are also witnessing one of the strongest staffs in San Francisco Giants history.

Jake Peavy, Matt Cain and the Giant Problem

Jake Peavy and Matt Cain are struggling. They have been bad enough in the first month of the season, that fans want them removed from the starting rotation. Trying to find two worthy replacements in May is hard enough, but trying to figure out what is wrong is even more difficult.

According to Jacob Fagan of Baseball Essential, Peavy and Cain have combined for an 8.10 ERA and a 5.15 FIP, which are brutal numbers for two veteran pitchers.

Bum, Cueto, Shark have a 3.34 ERA, 3.10 FIP

Cain, Peavy have an 8.10 ERA, 5.15 FIP

Overall, SFG SP have a 5.10 ERA, 3.79 FIP #misleading

— Jacob Fagan (@jacobfagan) May 6, 2016

With numbers like that, it is no wonder fans have been calling into the the local sports call in shows and demanding something be done. Peavy and Cain both struggled with injuries last season and came into 2016 healthy. Peavy, when healthy, was good last year and there was optimism that his numbers could be strong this season. Cain, who has been injured for parts of the last three seasons, had a setback during Spring Training and didn't return to the mound until right before the start of the season.

The Giants added free agent starting pitchers Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija in the off-season, so there was less concern about Peavy and Cain. Because they wouldn't be asked to be at the front end of the rotation, there would be pitchers to back them up if they struggled. Unfortunately for Peavy, Cain and the Giants, the struggles have been bad enough that the Giants are 1-9 in the last 10 starts between the two.

Surprisingly, the Giants are still in 1st place because of how well Madison Bumgarner, Cueto and Samardzija and because the rest of the National League West is also struggling. This is also another reason for concern because most of the games so far this season has been against the NL West and the road the rest of the way will be tougher.

To make matters more intriguing, Tim Lincecum is scheduled to pitch in front of scouts today. Lincecum, the former two time Cy Young award winner for the Giants, would be a savoir if he can be productive once again for the orange and black.

So who is already in the system that might help? According to Connor Penfold of Giant Potential, there are a few possible options in the minor league system. Former 1st round pick of the Toronto Blue Jays, Ricky Romero, is currently pitching in Triple-A along with Chris Heston and Clayton Blackburn. All three have struggled so far in Sacramento this season, so there is no clear cut answer.

In the case that Jake Peavy needs a "DL" stint, who can #SFGiants call on? Here are five viable options. https://t.co/Yl7wyCghY9

— GIANT Potential (@giant_potential) May 4, 2016

Brian Murphy, co-host of the Murph & Mac show on KNBR, brought up a good comparison to the Peavy and Cain problem from a decade earlier. In 2004, Kirk Rueter was 9-12 with a 4.73 ERA and 4.95 FIP. Rueter was not only a fan favorite since his arrival from the Montreal Expos in 1996, but he also was productive. Rueter ended his Giants career with the most wins by a left handed pitcher in team history. He never had ace "stuff" but he always seemed to keep the Giants in games, field his position and find ways to win. However, in 2004, the winning slowed. By 2005, Rueter stopped being effective. He went 2-7 with a 5.95 ERA and a 5.35 FIP. After 8 straight seasons of at least 27 starts and 7 of the those 8 with at least 32, he ended 2005 with only 18.

Rueter had been such an important part of those previous 8 seasons, that seeing his production fall so dramatically was tough. The team wanted to give him the chance to turn things around. Mike Krukow, a former Giants ace himself and current team broadcaster always points out that there are only so many innings in a pitcher's arm. 2005 was the final season for Rueter as a Giant in part because his arm ran out of innings. 

2005 wasn't a great year for the San Francisco Giants either, and one of the reasons that Rueter still started 18 times despite poor numbers might have been because of the entire team's lack of success. In Peavy and Cain's case, the team is still in first place and can't afford to fall out of the race. With so much talent on the roster, the Giants will either need Peavy and Cain to turn things around themselves or find replacements before it's too late. The question for Bruce Bochy, Bobby Evans, Brian Sabean and the rest of the Giants decision makers will be how many more starts for Peavy and Cain in 2016.

Of course, looking at things another way, Murphy did point out that winning 3 out of 5 is a great way to make the post season.

Here's my new radical #SFGiants theory.
Bum, Cueto, Samardzija = Win Day.
4/5 spots = Lose Day.
3-2 every 5 = .600 win pct. 97 wins.
Boom.

— Brian Murphy (@knbrmurph) May 6, 2016