Why the Cubs Should be Scared of the Giants and Why They Should Not

The San Francisco Giants have had two seasons in 2016. The 1st half was borderline dominant with elite pitching, superb defense and timely hitting. The Giants finished off the first half with the best record in baseball and had me declaring they were the best team in baseball.

As the Giants headed into the second half of the season, the playoffs seemed a certainty.

Then came the second half of the season, and after being swept in San Diego, the roller coaster never seemed to stop going down. After a 26-42 record in the 2nd half, the Giants needed to win four straight to make the second wild card game. After starting the season 57-33, nobody anticipated having to scratch and claw for 30 more wins.

But the Giants are in the dance, which is what they have been preaching the entire second half. "If we can just get in, we can make some noise." That has been the mantra. But, by losing to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West, they are now forced to face the New York Mets in New York for the right to play beyond a one game playoff.

So why should the Cubs be scared of this Giants team? Well, it always starts with pitching. Pitching and defense has been the Giants calling card since their 2010 World Series run and it is no different this year. Both Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto will get Cy Young votes and deservedly so. They have both been aces for a team that has lost multiple aces to injury and performance since 2010. With Tim Lincecum gone and Matt Cain struggling to stay healthy, the Giants have rallied around Bumgarner and free agent acquisition Cueto to lead this team. The additions of Jeff Samardzija and Matt Moore have also given the Giants innings eaters with strikeout stuff to lead them into the post-season. The Giants have proven in their previous playoff runs that powerful lineups like the Cubs have can become nearly obsolete by elite pitching. The Philadelphia Phillies, Texas Rangers and Detroit Tigers and others found that out in recent Octobers.

So why should the Cubs remain confident? Well it starts with the rest of the Giants pitching. The Giants blew more leads than any team in baseball and their bullpen was at the heart of their problems all season. Santiago Casilla is now their former closer after blowing nine saves himself. Former closer, Sergio Romo has returned to the ninth inning and performed well, but the majority of the Giants bullpen has struggled. Veterans Javier Lopez, Casilla and Romo have had their ups and downs and young pitchers like Derek Law, Hunter Strickland and Josh Osich have shown their inexperience at times.

Winning or losing in the National League Divisional Series will come down to pitching and who throws the ball better. Can Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks and Jake Arrieta outpitch the Giants staff, and will Aroldis Chapman be the difference in the late innings? October is all about pitching and the Giants will scare any team in baseball if their pitching at a championship level.

The Giants Big Three are Historically Good Already

The San Francisco Giants went into the off-season with a desire to improve their starting pitching. Bobby Evans went out and signed Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto to help shore up a staff that had trouble pitching deep into games. When asked about why the team signed the two right handed pitchers, both were labeled as "innings eaters."

Cueto and Samardzija have done much more than that. Along with Madison Bumgarner, all three have an ERA under three, and are a combined 20-5 in their 30 starts. These three pitchers are the main reason the Giants are in first place and have won 12 out of their last 13 games.

Through 10 starts …

Bumgarner: 6-2, 2.17 ERA, 66 1/3 innings Cueto: 7-1, 2.38 ERA, 75 2/3 innings Samardzija: 7-2, 2.54 ERA, 71 innings — Alex Pavlovic (@AlexPavlovic) May 25, 2016

If you look at a pitchers Game Score, anything over 57 is considered excellent. For more on what Game Score is, you can refer to Beyond the Box Score here. Using Game Score to look at Giants history, no pitching staff has pitched this well through 48 games since 1969. That staff included Hall of Famers Juan Marichal and Gaylord Perry. Marichal, Perry and Mike McCormick combined for 18 starts of 60 or higher in 1969. The Giants top three pitchers in 2016 now have 22 starts with a Game Score of 60 or higher this season. In those starts, the staff is 17-2. In more recent history, the Giants championship staffs in 2010, 2012, and 2014 didn't have as many strong starts as this 2016 club has. The entire starting staff in 2016 so far has 25 games of 60 or more with Matt Cain pitching two and Jake Peavy pitching one. The 2010 staff had 23 games of 60 or higher to this point in the season, while the other two championship teams have less as a group than just Bumgarner, Cueto and Samardzija. The Giants top three pitchers are also in the top 10 in all of baseball for their total Game score.

May 25 GSc Leaderboard: 1. Kershaw 2. Arrieta 3. Sale 4. Cueto 5. Syndergaard 6. Strasburg 7. Pomeranz 8. Bumgarner 9. Samardzija 10. Nola — Pitcher Game Score (@SPGameScore) May 25, 2016

The Giants were expecting their two prized free agent signings to help take the pressure off of incumbent starters Bumgarner, Cain and Peavy. But it was also to take pressure off a bullpen that was overworked in 2015. Both Sergio Romo and George Kontos, who were used heavily last season, have already been to the disabled list this season. The team also has put added responsibility on young arms like Josh Osich and Hunter Strickland.

Regardless of the reasons the Giants brought them in, it is clear that Cueto and Samardzija have been as good as any free agent signing this season and that we are also witnessing one of the strongest staffs in San Francisco Giants history.

Johnny Cueto is Already a Fan Favorite

 

Johnny Cueto was a surprise signing by the San Francisco Giants in the off-season. After inking Jeff Samardzija to a $90 million contract earlier in the winter, fans weren't sure what the Giants would do with their other open spot in the rotation.

Would they give the job to Chris Heston, who threw a no hitter last year in a strong 1st half of his rookie season? Would they try to bring back Tim Lincecum or Ryan Vogelsong for one last season? Would they sign a less heralded pitcher to put at the back end of the rotation, hoping for lightning in a bottle? Instead, the Giants did none of those things and signed Cueto for $130 million and placed him right behind ace Madison Bumgarner in the rotation.

The move has paid off early on as the Giants are 3-0 in his starts and his 21 1/3 innings pitched lead the staff. He has pitched at least 7 innings in every start, including his first start against the rival Los Angeles Dodgers where he gave up 5 runs in the first inning and still went another 6 innings.

Beating the Dodgers twice, the second time at Dodger Stadium, is the fastest way to any Giants fan's heart. But it's the way he's won and how he goes about his business that has made him an instant star in the eyes of the fans. He refuses to be conventional on the mound, from quick pitching, to shimmying before he throws, to all sorts of other quirks before he pitches. All of these motions are designed to disrupt the hitters timing and make the batter uncomfortable. It's been working.



Cueto is a defensive player's best friend as he seems to hate taking any time between pitches. His insistence to remove his hat the second he is allowed to after an inning ends will catch on real quick at AT&T. I could see the crowd removing their caps at the end of an inning as a tribute to Cueto as he walks back into the dugout.

Ultimately, production is always longer lasting than showmanship and entertainment. But this is a game and this is a fan's entertainment dollar. Right now, if you asked a fan who they would pay to see pitch, most might still say Madison Bumgarner, not only for his ability on the mound, but to see him swing the lumber at the plate as well.

Cueto, at the moment, has produced more than any other pitcher in the rotation, and if he continues to produce, his pitching alone will become the star of the show at 24 Willie Mays Plaza.

What the Kolten Wong Extension Means for Joe Panik

The St. Louis Cardinals announced today that Kolten Wong will be signing a 5 year extension to stay with the club through 2020 with a club option for 2021.

#STLCards sign Kolten Wong to 5-year deal thru 2020 with club option for 2021 pic.twitter.com/fPs77iE7Ae

— St. Louis Cardinals (@Cardinals) March 2, 2016

Baseball Essential writer Corey Adams (@corey_adams) wrote about the Wong extension earlier today.

So what does this mean for the San Francisco Giants homegrown second baseman Joe Panik? Panik went to his first All-Star game in 2015 and won a championship with the Giants his rookie year. A back injury limited his 2015 season to 100 games. That means Panik will be heading into his 3rd different season in the Major Leagues, but he hasn't actually played a full season yet. However, the former 1st round pick has been impressive from the day he joined the Giants during their World Series run in 2014.

Panik had a slashline in 2015 of .312/.378/.455 with an OPS of .833, an OPS+ of 131 and a Wins Above Replacement of 3.3. He also played Gold Glove level defense at second base, and had he not been injured, may have been in the running for the award.

Wong, who played in 150 games in 2015, with a slashline of .262/.321/.386 with an OPS of .707, an OPS+ of 92 and a Wins Above Replacement of 2.2. Wong had a small sample size in 2013 and played in 113 games in 2014. Wong's career WAR is 3.9, which is only slightly higher than Panik's production in only 100 games in 2015.

The Giants recently gave an extension to Panik's double play partner Brandon Crawford earlier this off-season. The Giants also have long term deals set with Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner and newly acquired Jeff Samardzija. Johnny Cueto, another off-season acquisition, can opt out of his deal in two years, but could possibly be another long term fixture for the Giants.

Will Panik be the next player to get an extension? The team may also consider extensions for Brandon Belt and Matt Duffy as well. The Giants has shown a willingness to be patient with their extensions. Wong's deal certainly sets the bar for negotiations, so the question will be how much higher will the bar go for Panik?

Giants still using the same formula

The San Francisco Giants have been busy this off-season. They have extended their franchise shortstop Brandon Crawford to a new long term contract and signed two top of the rotation pitchers in Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto. They have also said goodbye to many players who had key roles in championship seasons in San Francisco.

Crawford's deal is the Giants way, giving extensions to homegrown players that are part of the nucleus of the franchise. The Giants did the same with several key pieces over the years, including Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner, Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum and many others.

However, the other common thread among the previous seasons for the Giants is to re-sign players when they become free agents. Aubrey Huff, Andres Torres, Angel Pagan, Jeremy Affeldt, and others came from other teams, fit right in with the clubhouse and all contributed greatly to a championship. Then, when it was time for free agency, they were re-signed. Many of these players struggled at times to put up the numbers they had previously, but this was a part of the reason that this franchise was winning so many post-season games. The locker room felt like a family because the front office kept the family together. So when Cody Ross, Javier Lopez, Marco Scutaro or Hunter Pence were brought in during the season and only spent a few months with the franchise, it was already clear that the team would keep them around.

Going into the 2015 off-season, fans expected the Giants to bring back Mike Leake, a mid-season trade, who struggled to stay healthy, but was the type of pitcher they were looking for in the rotation behind Bumgarner.

Affeldt and Tim Hudson had announced their retirement before the season ended, so Giants fans were able to say goodbye to both pitchers, but several free agents were question marks to return to the club. This was unusual, because very few free agents ever left the team. Yet, in 2015, the Giants have already lost Ryan Vogelsong, Yusmeiro Petit, Hector Sanchez, Juan Perez, Joaquin Arias, Nori Aoki and are unlikely to bring back Lincecum. Alejandro De Aza and Marlon Byrd are both still free agents, but there isn't any indication that either will be brought back to play left field in 2016. Some fans may see this as a change from what they are used to, but we saw a glimpse of this new version last off-season.

Before the Giants brought back Jake Peavy, Sergio Romo, and Vogelsong, the Giants went after Jon Lester. Bobby Evans, the team's general manager, was trying to find a pitcher to pair with Bumgarner. He had also hoped publicly that Cain could return to form and give them the type of season they were accustomed to for Matt's first eight years with the club. With injuries to Peavy and Cain crippling the Giants starting pitching depth last year, the mission was clear this off-season: to add pitching depth to the rotation. At first, that meant going after Zack Greinke, the runner up to the Cy Young award in 2015, and an elite pitcher. When the Giants became runners up for the second straight off-season to a top pitcher, the Giants stayed the course and went after Samardzija. After signing him to a five year deal, they turned their attention to Cueto and were able to sign him as well.

But with all this money to big time free agents, are the Giants getting away from what has made them so great? The simple answer is no. The 2010, 2012, and 2014 World Series Championships were won on pitching and defense. The Giants have given $295 million to three players this off-season that are their gold glove shortstop and two starting pitchers with ace potential.

The team may have gone about it differently than in past off-seasons, with the front page signings, but Crawford, Samardzija and Cueto fit everything the Giants do and have done the last six seasons. What Bobby Evans has done is no different than the money the team has given to so many other players in past seasons. They know the formula it takes to win and they have the horses now to compete again for a fourth championship this decade.