Jake Peavy and Matt Cain are struggling. They have been bad enough in the first month of the season, that fans want them removed from the starting rotation. Trying to find two worthy replacements in May is hard enough, but trying to figure out what is wrong is even more difficult.
According to Jacob Fagan of Baseball Essential, Peavy and Cain have combined for an 8.10 ERA and a 5.15 FIP, which are brutal numbers for two veteran pitchers.
Bum, Cueto, Shark have a 3.34 ERA, 3.10 FIP— Jacob Fagan (@jacobfagan) May 6, 2016
Cain, Peavy have an 8.10 ERA, 5.15 FIP
Overall, SFG SP have a 5.10 ERA, 3.79 FIP #misleading
With numbers like that, it is no wonder fans have been calling into the the local sports call in shows and demanding something be done. Peavy and Cain both struggled with injuries last season and came into 2016 healthy. Peavy, when healthy, was good last year and there was optimism that his numbers could be strong this season. Cain, who has been injured for parts of the last three seasons, had a setback during Spring Training and didn't return to the mound until right before the start of the season.
The Giants added free agent starting pitchers Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija in the off-season, so there was less concern about Peavy and Cain. Because they wouldn't be asked to be at the front end of the rotation, there would be pitchers to back them up if they struggled. Unfortunately for Peavy, Cain and the Giants, the struggles have been bad enough that the Giants are 1-9 in the last 10 starts between the two.
Surprisingly, the Giants are still in 1st place because of how well Madison Bumgarner, Cueto and Samardzija and because the rest of the National League West is also struggling. This is also another reason for concern because most of the games so far this season has been against the NL West and the road the rest of the way will be tougher.
To make matters more intriguing, Tim Lincecum is scheduled to pitch in front of scouts today. Lincecum, the former two time Cy Young award winner for the Giants, would be a savoir if he can be productive once again for the orange and black.
So who is already in the system that might help? According to Connor Penfold of Giant Potential, there are a few possible options in the minor league system. Former 1st round pick of the Toronto Blue Jays, Ricky Romero, is currently pitching in Triple-A along with Chris Heston and Clayton Blackburn. All three have struggled so far in Sacramento this season, so there is no clear cut answer.
In the case that Jake Peavy needs a "DL" stint, who can #SFGiants call on? Here are five viable options. https://t.co/Yl7wyCghY9— GIANT Potential (@giant_potential) May 4, 2016
Brian Murphy, co-host of the Murph & Mac show on KNBR, brought up a good comparison to the Peavy and Cain problem from a decade earlier. In 2004, Kirk Rueter was 9-12 with a 4.73 ERA and 4.95 FIP. Rueter was not only a fan favorite since his arrival from the Montreal Expos in 1996, but he also was productive. Rueter ended his Giants career with the most wins by a left handed pitcher in team history. He never had ace "stuff" but he always seemed to keep the Giants in games, field his position and find ways to win. However, in 2004, the winning slowed. By 2005, Rueter stopped being effective. He went 2-7 with a 5.95 ERA and a 5.35 FIP. After 8 straight seasons of at least 27 starts and 7 of the those 8 with at least 32, he ended 2005 with only 18.
Rueter had been such an important part of those previous 8 seasons, that seeing his production fall so dramatically was tough. The team wanted to give him the chance to turn things around. Mike Krukow, a former Giants ace himself and current team broadcaster always points out that there are only so many innings in a pitcher's arm. 2005 was the final season for Rueter as a Giant in part because his arm ran out of innings.
2005 wasn't a great year for the San Francisco Giants either, and one of the reasons that Rueter still started 18 times despite poor numbers might have been because of the entire team's lack of success. In Peavy and Cain's case, the team is still in first place and can't afford to fall out of the race. With so much talent on the roster, the Giants will either need Peavy and Cain to turn things around themselves or find replacements before it's too late. The question for Bruce Bochy, Bobby Evans, Brian Sabean and the rest of the Giants decision makers will be how many more starts for Peavy and Cain in 2016.
Of course, looking at things another way, Murphy did point out that winning 3 out of 5 is a great way to make the post season.
Here's my new radical #SFGiants theory.— Brian Murphy (@knbrmurph) May 6, 2016
Bum, Cueto, Samardzija = Win Day.
4/5 spots = Lose Day.
3-2 every 5 = .600 win pct. 97 wins.
Boom.
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