Saturday, December 19, 2015

Another Thank You Letter to Ryan Vogelsong


Giants fans have a unique relationship with Ryan Vogelsong. Not a single year in the last five years has every fan been on board with Vogelsong at the same time. Well, maybe one time. In 2012, with the team's back against the wall, Vogelsong pitched his heart out against the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Championship Series to force a deciding Game 7.

Outside of that single game, fans have always been assuming that the season they watched #Vogelstrong pitch would be his final season as a Giant. Every offseason, fans expected the Giants to move on from the former homegrown pitcher who had given it everything he had and probably didn't have anything left. And every season, the Giants kept bringing him back.

After 2014, and a second World Series Championship, fans expected Ryan to ride off into the sunset with his wife Nicole and his family. However, Ryan wanted to pitch in 2015, and the Giants fans got on the radio and made it known that we should move on. I never understood this logic. Even this offseason, Vogelsong would give us a veteran to spot start, be used as a long man and even a possible late inning guy at times. That job, at the moment, will go to someone from the Giants farm system. Chris Heston, who threw a no-hitter last season against the NLCS champion New York Mets, is the favorite to win the job, so the competition would be legitimate and it's possible Vogelsong wouldn't make the team.

That is why he has looked this offseason for a new home, despite telling fans and the front office that he wanted to return. This week, Vogelsong found a home, signing with the Pittsburgh Pirates on a one-year deal. It's an opportunity for one of the greatest pitchers in San Francisco Giants playoff history to try to make one more postseason.
As a Giants fan, I am sad that Vogelsong will not be able to finish his career in San Francisco. As a Ryan Vogelsong fan, I am thrilled that he has found an opportunity to start for one of the best teams in baseball.

Last off-season, when there were reports that Vogelsong had signed with the Houston Astros, I wrote Ryan an open letter on my blog to share with him how much he truly meant to the fanbase, regardless of what some fans had said each offseason:

Dear Ryan Vogelsong,

Thank you for giving your heart and soul to the San Francisco Giants for the last four years. What an incredible journey it took to come back to the franchise where it all started. What an even more incredible last four years. Two world championships, a Willie Mac award and an All-Star appearance. Through all the ups and downs, you continued to put in the hours and give everything of yourself for this team.

The best thing about your time in San Francisco is that when the team needed you most, you performed. Your post-season record will go down in history as one of the best ever in the history of the franchise. Fans will always remember you for that. And, that will make you forever a fan favorite.

I am so happy for you to find a team where you will have the opportunity to pitch every fifth day. I know that opportunity might not have been possible with the Giants in 2015. Here's hoping you are able to continue to pitch for as long as you want. One day, you will have a plaque outside AT&T Park for all of your success in orange and black. Fitting you found another team in orange to play for. Good luck in Houston. You will forever be a champion and forever a Giant.

 The fan base

When news broke about Ryan heading to Houston last offseason long time Giants broadcaster and former pitcher Mike Krukow said: "The one thing you want as a player is to be remembered, and San Francisco will never forget Ryan Vogelsong."

Now, a year later, and five seasons in the books in San Francisco, the same feelings still apply. Fans may have had a hard time seeing what the Giants continued to see in Ryan over the last five seasons, but what I saw was a guy willing to give everything he had for his team, his teammates and this fan base. Fans should be so lucky to have a pitcher like Ryan Vogelsong on their team for half a decade, willing to take the ball every fifth day no matter what, and pitch with everything he's got for as long as he can.

Giants still using the same formula



The San Francisco Giants have been busy this off-season. They have extended their franchise shortstop Brandon Crawford to a new long term contract and signed two top of the rotation pitchers in Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto. They have also said goodbye to many players who had key roles in championship seasons in San Francisco.

Crawford's deal is the Giants way, giving extensions to homegrown players that are part of the nucleus of the franchise. The Giants did the same with several key pieces over the years, including Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner, Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum and many others.

However, the other common thread among the previous seasons for the Giants is to re-sign players when they become free agents. Aubrey Huff, Andres Torres, Angel Pagan, Jeremy Affeldt, and others came from other teams, fit right in with the clubhouse and all contributed greatly to a championship. Then, when it was time for free agency, they were re-signed. Many of these players struggled at times to put up the numbers they had previously, but this was a part of the reason that this franchise was winning so many post-season games. The locker room felt like a family because the front office kept the family together. So when Cody Ross, Javier Lopez, Marco Scutaro or Hunter Pence were brought in during the season and only spent a few months with the franchise, it was already clear that the team would keep them around.

Going into the 2015 off-season, fans expected the Giants to bring back Mike Leake, a mid-season trade, who struggled to stay healthy, but was the type of pitcher they were looking for in the rotation behind Bumgarner.

Affeldt and Tim Hudson had announced their retirement before the season ended, so Giants fans were able to say goodbye to both pitchers, but several free agents were question marks to return to the club. This was unusual, because very few free agents ever left the team. Yet, in 2015, the Giants have already lost Ryan Vogelsong, Yusmeiro Petit, Hector Sanchez, Juan Perez, Joaquin Arias, Nori Aoki and are unlikely to bring back Lincecum. Alejandro De Aza and Marlon Byrd are both still free agents, but there isn't any indication that either will be brought back to play left field in 2016. Some fans may see this as a change from what they are used to, but we saw a glimpse of this new version last off-season.

Before the Giants brought back Jake Peavy, Sergio Romo, and Vogelsong, the Giants went after Jon Lester. Bobby Evans, the team's general manager, was trying to find a pitcher to pair with Bumgarner. He had also hoped publicly that Cain could return to form and give them the type of season they were accustomed to for Matt's first eight years with the club. With injuries to Peavy and Cain crippling the Giants starting pitching depth last year, the mission was clear this off-season: to add pitching depth to the rotation. At first, that meant going after Zack Greinke, the runner up to the Cy Young award in 2015, and an elite pitcher. When the Giants became runners up for the second straight off-season to a top pitcher, the Giants stayed the course and went after Samardzija. After signing him to a five year deal, they turned their attention to Cueto and were able to sign him as well.




But with all this money to big time free agents, are the Giants getting away from what has made them so great? The simple answer is no. The 2010, 2012, and 2014 World Series Championships were won on pitching and defense. The Giants have given $295 million to three players this off-season that are their gold glove shortstop and two starting pitchers with ace potential.

The team may have gone about it differently than in past off-seasons, with the front page signings, but Crawford, Samardzija and Cueto fit everything the Giants do and have done the last six seasons. What Bobby Evans has done is no different than the money the team has given to so many other players in past seasons. They know the formula it takes to win and they have the horses now to compete again for a fourth championship this decade.

Saturday, November 14, 2015

Giants have grown the best infield in baseball

When the Giants had Barry Bonds in the middle of their lineup, they had a habit of giving up on prospects for veterans. This win now approach led to some post-season success, but the Giants never won a World Series with that approach.

Fast forward to 2015, and the Giants have three world championships because of a change in philosophy, that began with building through the farm system. This led to the team sticking with young first rounder Matt Cain, instead of trading him away like they had with so many others. And after some down years at the end of the Bonds era, the Giants used those drafts to re-stock their system for the long term. Tim Lincecum, Madison Bumgarner and Buster Posey got the most headlines, but the Giants started looking for players who were worth investing in long term.

This led to the Giants taking Brandon Crawford in the 4th round in 2008, Brandon Belt in the 5th round in 2009, Joe Panik late in the 1st round in 2011 and Matt Duffy in the 18th round in 2012.

Crawford had built a reputation with his glove in college, but his bat was inconsistent to say the least heading into the draft. So despite a much higher grade, he fell to the 4th round. His bat wasn't great in the minors either, but his glove kept him in the conversation for a call-up. However, even when he joined the team in 2011, he struggled at the plate. To put his bat in perspective, look at the similarities between Crawford and Andrelton Simmons at age 25.
However, the Giants believed in two things after winning a championship in 2010: 1. Pitching and defense is more important than offense. 2. Building through the farm system will pay off. Crawford slowly started to show improvement at the plate over the next two seasons. In 2015, he put it all together, earning a trip to the Midsummer Classic, winning his 1st Gold Glove and winning the Silver Slugger award as the best hitting shortstop in the National League.



Belt has always been an interesting case for Giants fans. For fans who believe in traditional stats more, Belt has been a disappointment. He has never hit 20 home runs, let alone 30 like fans expect, and he has never driven in more than 68 runs in a season. For fans who have embraced Sabermetrics more, Belt has been a strong two way player his entire career. He also set career marks in 2015 for home runs, runs batted in and walks with a slashline of .280/.356/.478. Also in 2015, Belt was awarded with his 1st ever Gold Glove nomination. Belt has always been criticized by fans for what he has not yet done, but his defense at 1st base, willingness to share the position with Posey without controversy, and his career .803 OPS are clearly valuable.

Panik missed 62 games in 2015, but his slashline of .312/.378/.455 led to a Silver Slugger nomination. He also showed off power he hadn't shown before with 8 home runs in his shortened season. Despite being the only Giants infielder not to be nominated for a gold glove, it may be because his best play came in a rehab start in Sacramento.
If Panik can put together a full season in 2016, he could beat out Dee Gordon for both the Gold Glove and Silver Slugger awards at 2nd base.



Duffy didn't even start at third base for the first five weeks of the season, as the team had signed Casey McGehee to start at 3rd. Duffy also had never played 3rd base in his professional career. Despite not starting until May, Duffy earned a nomination for both a Gold Glove as well as Rookie of the Year. And if it wasn't for the existence of generational talents Nolan Arenado and Kris Bryant, he'd have a chance at winning both. In his first Major League season, Duffy, had a slashline a .295/.334/.428 that included 12 home runs. While 12 is certainly a small number, it's important to note that Duffy did not hit a single home run in his entire college career and only hit 13 home runs in three minor league seasons.

 His development, along with Panik, Belt and Crawford show a patient approach Giants fans weren't used to. The team's patience with their homegrown talent has been paramount to their success in both 2012 and 2014. In the 2014 World Series, the Giants ended game 7 with an entirely homegrown infield and battery. Bumgarner was on the mound, with Posey catching, Belt at 1st, Panik at 2nd, Crawford at short, and Pablo Sandoval at third.

 Despite the Giants missing the post-season in 2015, the infield was historically good. Posey, Belt, Panik, Crawford and Duffy became just the 7th full infield in baseball history where each player had a Wins Above Replacement of at least 3.3.
The only other teams to accomplish this were the 2002 New York Yankees, 1983 Milwaukee Brewers, 1977 Texas Rangers, 1950 New York Giants, 1914 Philadelphia A's and 1906 Chicago Cubs. While the '02 Yankees infield consisted of homegrown talents as well like Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada and Alfonso Soriano, they also included a huge free agent signing in Jason Giambi and a trade for Robin Ventura. The Brewers team in '83 happened to include two members of the Baseball Hall of Fame with Paul Molitor and Robin Yount.

 If you include Madison Bumgarner with the five infielders, they had a collective WAR of 29.7 in 2015. By comparison, the 2002 Yankees infield, along with Hall of Fame candidate Mike Mussina, had a combined WAR of 27.8. There are two things Giants fans can conclude from these numbers: 1. The Giants homegrown infield was great in 2015. 2. The Giants homegrown infield could be even better in 2016.

Thursday, November 5, 2015

The San Francisco Giants will sign...


Ah, the off-season. That time of year where we play musical chairs with free agents and put all of our favorite free agents in our favorite team's uniforms. Just imagine your team with Zach Greinke, or David Price or Jason Heyward or Yoenis Cespedes. Instant World Series contender. It's what we do as fans in November when our favorite sport ends in October. We have five months to speculate on how good our favorite team will be and it won't be until April before we get to see if any of our thoughts are actually accurate. The Giants have two significant needs: Starting pitcher and Left field. The off-season has two loaded positions: Starting pitching and the outfield. It's almost like next year is an even year or something. Yes, despite Vegas having the Giants as 20-1 favorites for the 2016 World Series, Giants fans know it's more like 2-1. Giants fans have become a little delusional in recent years. Winning the World Series is immensely difficult and the proof is not only in the Giants missing the playoffs entirely in three of the last six years, but also in 100 win teams like the Cardinals not even making the NLCS this season. The Dodgers won the National League West three straight years, something that franchise has never done, and came up short every time. The Pirates have made the playoffs three straight years as well, but haven't got past the 1 game playoff in two of them. Baseball is hard. So how will the Giants get back to the parade route that they have grown so accustomed to in recent seasons? Buying expensive free agents of course. But who do you sign? Who will they sign? And will those players want to sign with them?
1. Zach Greinke
The prize of the 2015 free agency class is coming off a Cy Young season. Even if Jake Arrieta or Clayton Kershaw win the award, Greinke's 2015 numbers were otherworldly. He put in one of the great seasons of all-time. He will be paid a mint to sign with whoever offers him the most mints. The Giants just declined options on Nori Aoki and Marlon Byrd. Play-by-play announcer Duane Kuiper suggested that the main reason for the options being declined was to put all their chips into the middle of the table for Greinke. Bobby Evans, the Giants general manager, said he wanted the most flexibility the team could have heading into free agency. Is Greinke worth the risk? Signing him would mean two things immediately. The top pitcher available is added to a rotation that features Madison Bumgarner and creates a similar 1-2 punch that the Dodgers had in Kershaw & Greinke. It also takes Greinke away from the rival Dodgers, which makes them instantly worse. That doesn't mean another top tier free agent couldn't sign with the Dodgers, but just that it could be a strong rationale to go after the top prize.

2. David Price

Price has been an outstanding pitcher his entire professional career. He has been nearly as good when it comes to Wins Above Replacement as Max Scherzer since his rookie year of 2008. His 29.2 WAR is only slightly less than Scherzer's 31 WAR in the same seasons. Considering what Scherzer was paid by the Nationals, expect Price to seek out similar money. Again, the question "is he worth it?" is thrown out there, and based on his sub par post-season starts with Tampa Bay, Detroit and Toronto, there are red flags when it comes to what Price will do when the light shines brightest. Of course, those were all American League teams, so obviously signing with the Giants will be just the change of scenery Price need come October. Right? In the absolutely loaded National League...maybe not.

3. Jordan Zimmermann

 October 4, 2014. Jordan Zimmermann pitched 8 and 2/3 innings of 1 run ball, allowing 3 hits vs the Giants and when Matt Williams came to get him and pull him from the game, the Giants road to the World Series became possible. The Nationals are loaded. Dusty Baker has been brought in to lead the troops and that is scary because Giants fans know first hand how much better the Nationals will be now with Dusty running the team. But the team will more than likely not re-sign Zimmermann with so many other pitchers on their staff making big money. Every Giants fan remembers how dominant Zimmermann looked that night in October, and every fan should be hoping that the free agent market thinks as little of Zimmermann as Williams did that night. Hopefully he falls into the laps of the Giants and he becomes the one who gets paired with Bumgarner. So by the power vested in me by the state of the internet, I proudly pronounce Jordan Zimmermann signed by the San Francisco Giants.

4. Jason Heyward

So now that we've solved starting pitching, let's find the Giants their outfielder. Heyward is an interesting case because to some, he is one of the best two way players the game has ever seen to start a career. On the other hand, he doesn't hit for enough power or have enough of the traditional numbers to warrant a middle-of-the-order payday. Heyward would be a perfect Giant, and there were reports that the Giants were trying to trade for Heyward last off-season before the Cardinals swooped in. So, we can expect the Giants to be interested. However, is his price tag going to scare away most teams? Will he be worth every penny, or will he be a guy who looks more like Jayson Werth than Manny Ramirez.

5. Yoenis Cespedes

Cespedes has played for the Oakland A's, Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers and New York Mets in the last calendar year. How can a player still be looked at as a prize in the free agent market when so many teams let him go elsewhere? Because baseball is weird and so is Cespedes' career so far. He has all the tools that scouts drool over. His arm is as legendary as his bat flips. However, he also takes terrible routes to the ball sometimes and even his greatest throw vs the Angels came after the ball was kicked. He became a non factor in the World Series this year, and yet the Mets wouldn't have made the playoffs in the first place without him. Will someone offer him an obscene amount of money and will that team play their home games at AT&T Park?

6. Alex Gordon

Gordon is a gold glove left fielder who may have hit the biggest home run in Royals history this October. He declined his player option this week, so he is now a free agent, and his age may be the only red flag heading into the winter. Will he remain productive in years four and five of a long term deal? Will he be worth the money he gets offered to still be an elite left fielder and to still be productive at the plate? As I wrote a couple of weeks ago, Free Agents aren't worth it. Does that mean that teams will stop overpaying for free agents? No. Will it mean that teams will be more careful about who they offer big money to? Probably not. But when it comes to this free agent class, Gordon seems like a more reasonable answer in left field at a much more reasonable price than Heyward or Cespedes. So that answers that one. The Giants will be signing Jordan Zimmermann and Alex Gordon and winning the World Series in 2016. I know we will all still watch the games next season, even though we know the results already because we love baseball, but it's nice to have some piece of mind. So the only real question now is: Who wins in 2017? It's an odd year. I'm no good with odd year predictions.

Thursday, October 29, 2015

We need to revisit what a fan is

My name is Michael Saltzman and I am a San Francisco Giants fan. Like all fans, I have died hard with my team. I have survived the torture of 2003, 2002, 2000, 1998, 1997, 1993, 1989, 1987, etc... I  have also enjoyed the highest of highs with the championships of 2010, 2012, and 2014. That's what fans do. They figuratively live and die with their team. Through the good times, through the bad times, and through Scott Speizio.

As a fan growing up in the late 1980's, I fell in love with Bay Area baseball. Both the Giants and A's were outstanding teams. Guys like Will Clark, Robby Thompson and Matt Williams were coming up through the minor league system at the time for the Giants, and they became the foundation of many successful seasons in San Francisco. Meanwhile, the A's had a great team of their own with some Hall of Fame talent like Rickey Henderson and Dennis Eckersley, along with the Bash Brothers, Dave Henderson, Dave Parker and Terry Steinbach.

However, during the 1989 World Series, I came to a crossroads in the rule of fandom.

1. 1st rule of Fandom: You can only have 1 team.
2. 2nd rule of Fandom: YOU CAN ONLY HAVE 1 TEAM!!

You weren't allowed to root for both teams. Those hats they came out with that had the A's on one half and the Giants on the other were disgusting, not creative. At least that's how I was brainwashed to think. I had a problem. I was nine years old, and I had favorites on both. I loved Kevin Mitchell. He was my absolute favorite player. His 1989 season led to an MVP award and his 47 home runs and 125 runs batted in led the way for the Giants that season. Rickey and Dave Henderson were also great for the A's and I loved watching Rickey run the bases and loved watching the swagger of Hendu in centerfield.

But, you can only have 1 favorite team. You can only have 1 team you die hard for. So, I had to make a decision, and like the first paragraph explained, I am still a proud Giants fan.

But let's go back to those favorite players for a minute. Mitchell was my favorite as a 9 year old boy in 1989, and his posters were on my wall and his baseball cards were in my school binders. In 1992, the Giants betrayed me and traded Mitchell to the Seattle Mariners. How could they do that? That was my favorite player. Other favorites would be gone soon after as Will Clark and Matt Williams were both gone during the next few seasons. So, even if I had picked Clark or Williams to be my favorite player, or even my new favorite player, I would have suddenly had to start watching Texas Rangers and Cleveland Indians games respectively. Despite my favorite player being shipped to Seattle, I stayed with the Giants. It wasn't easy, and I did "root" for Mitchell, Clark, Williams, and other former Giants when I watched them play elsewhere.

This brings me to the main reason I am writing this article and why I gave you my personal back story as well. We basically become fans for 1 of two reasons.

A. We were born near the team we root for.
B. We have a favorite player

There rarely is a third reason. My brother-in-law was born in Australia and the only games broadcast there when he was growing up were Yankees games, so he became a die hard Yankees fan and a die hard Don Mattingly fan as well. I still include that into the A category because when you aren't near a team, the team that gets broadcast the most where you live will often become your honorary team. This is one of the very reasons the Cubs and Braves have had such a great national following, because of their games being shown nationally on basic cable television for so many years.

I was born in San Jose, California, and went to many games at Candlestick Park and the Oakland Coliseum. It wasn't an accident that those two teams were my favorite teams, or that my favorite players were on those teams.

So let's talk about B for a minute then. Sometimes, we have a favorite player. That player usually is on the local team, but not always. There are certainly fans of Derek Jeter who never spent time in New York and there are certainly Giants fans because of Buster Posey who have never been to California.

So let's take a player who is great, and who has been traded and look at the dynamics of the fandom surrounding that player. Unfortunately, the Oakland A's have traded away many players in recent years and those players have gone to perform well in their new homes. Meanwhile, friends of mine are stuck rooting for the constantly changing roster in Oakland. Josh Donaldson, one of the best players in the game and an MVP candidate in 2015 for the Toronto Blue Jays, was an Oakland A's third baseman in 2014.

Very few fans of Josh Donaldson became Blue Jays fans. Most Josh Donaldson fans stayed Oakland A's fans.

WHY!!!!

This is the part of fandom that I never understood and even as an adult and victim to the rationale we give for why this always happens.

I understand that loyalty to your hometown is similar to loyalty to your family for many people and when you are a fan of a team from the place you are from, there is a bond that feels just as strong as the bond with your family. However, many fans of Josh Donaldson and the A's became fans of Donaldson because of his abilities on the field. The playoff success the A's have had in recent seasons gave them many more casual fans and those fans loved the way that Donaldson played the game.

So when Billy Beane traded Donaldson, why aren't fans allowed to root for the Blue Jays? Why do they have to root for Brett Lawrie, the A's new third baseman, more than Donaldson.

Imagine your emotions in the following scenario: You and your best friend are die hard A's fans. You sat on the couch and watched the 2014 post-season and were crushed when the Royals stormed back to defeat your favorite team. In the off-season, you hear the news that Beane has traded Donaldson to the Blue Jays for Lawrie and prospects. You go to see your friend a few days later and they are sitting on that same couch wearing a Blue Jays jersey.

Do you feel?

A. Betrayed
B. Angry
C. Baffled
D. Confused
E. All of the Above

You're damn right ALL OF THE ABOVE. What a traitor! What kind of fan are you!?!? How could you leave our A's for the stupid Blue Jays? I guess the big money teams can buy your loyalty too.

Why does this happen? Why do you let ourselves fall in love with players on our favorite team, and then treat them like chess pieces when they move elsewhere? These are our favorite players. We should be allowed to root for those individual players no matter where they play. If you are a Josh Donaldson fan, you should be rooting for him in Toronto.  And yet, we don't. We stick with our team because the name on the front of the jersey is more important than the name on the back.

But how many of us fell in love with our favorite team because of a player. How many Yankees fans, are actually just Derek Jeter fans. How many of those Jeter fans are now sitting around their room with all of their Yankees memorabilia trying to convince themselves that they love the Yankees and not just Jeter. It's not hard and it's actually quite typical.

It's human nature. For those Jeter fans, they ended up watching many Yankees games over the years, and when Aaron Boone, or Scott Brosius or Hideki Matsui had a big moment, they cheered just as loud as if Jeter got that hit. They want Jeter to do well, and for him to win, the other 24 guys have to play well too. That's why we end up buying other replica jerseys and generic memorabilia that has nothing to do with our favorite player as the years go. We end up liking other guys too. And, we also know that when our favorite player retires, we will need a new favorite to keep the line moving.



Many fans of my Giants began because of Posey. However, since they started following the Giants in 2010, they also became fans of Madison Bumgarner, Hunter Pence and Matt Duffy. This is not surprising. It happens to every fan. We end up liking other players, but our reason for liking the "team" in the first place is only because of the one guy. When Posey retires, these fans will feel obligated by the rules of fandom to stay with the Giants. That is because of the infamous "Rule #3."

3. 3rd rule of fandom: You cannot change allegiances no matter what.
4. 4th rule of fandom: YOU CANNOT...I love Fight Club.

We vilify fans for changing teams. If the team they change to is good, regardless of the reason, we say they jumped on the bandwagon.  We again rip them for their lack of loyalty. We tell them that they are not worthy of calling themselves fans because they didn't stick with their team no matter what. We use the term die hard and we figuratively mean it. We "kill" fans for changing their loyalty.

We need to realize that this is entertainment and our entertainment should be best spent on the people who entertain us the most. When Jeter retires, fans don't owe the Yankees anything. They should be allowed to shift to a new favorite player, regardless of whether they are on the Yankees or not. Same with Posey. Same with Donaldson. Same with whoever your favorite player is.

The name on the back of the jersey means more than the name on the front. That's what a true fanatic really should be. They are crazy about the players that make them fall in love with the game every day. If you love your team, the way I love the Giants, feel free to stick to your team through thick and thin. I'm going to even after writing this story. Like I said in the beginning of this article: I am Michael Saltzman and I am a San Francisco Giants fan.



Friday, October 23, 2015

Free Agents Aren't Worth It.

For the last several off-seasons, big money teams have thrown millions of dollars to high priced free agents. They have also signed players on their rosters to extensions and traded for high priced players. All of these moves were made with a simple idea in mind. These teams felt like the piece their team was missing was either a frontline starter or middle of the order bat. By spending large sums of their profits to bring in this All-Star caliber player, these teams have felt it was the missing piece to much future success.

That has to be the reason. It wouldn't make sense for it to be any other way. That's why the Texas Rangers gave Alex Rodriguez $252 million in 2001. That's the reason the Angels gave Albert Pujols $240 million in 2012 and why the Mariners gave Robinson Cano the same last off-season.

Of the 20 largest contracts ever given to free agents in baseball history to change teams, only four players have won rings with that team: Manny Ramirez, C.C. Sabathia, Mark Teixeira and Barry Zito.  The Red Sox handed Ramirez a $160 million deal in 2001, and three years later, he helped the Sox break "The Curse of the Bambino" to finally win the World Series and then won again in 2007. By the end of the contract, Manny was being Manny too often and he left Boston. Considering the recent history of large contacts, however, this was the clear winner as the most successful free agent signing in the last 15 years.

The Yankees gave Sabathia $161 million and Texieira $180 million in 2009 and it paid immediate dividends, as they led the Yankees to their 27th title that season. Sabathia was their ace for the next four years, but has struggled the last three seasons. Teixeira also had good seasons through 2012, and then struggled in 2013 and 2014 like Sabathia. In a tragic turn of events, Sabathia has checked himself into rehab for alcohol and his future is in doubt. Teixeira had a Comeback Player of the Year worthy season in 2015, and now heads into the final year of his contract with some hope.



The Giants gave Zito $126 million back in 2007. For the first four seasons, Zito was widely considered by fans in the Bay Area to be a terrible signing and when the team went to the post-season in 2010, he wasn't included on the playoff roster. Now as any Giants fan will tell you now, Zito's pitching performance in the 2012 post-season wiped all the bad thoughts and all the bad seasons.  However, this also shows just how unlikely it is for your team's big free agent signing being the missing link.

Max Scherzer and Zach Greinke, who signed with the Nationals and Dodgers, respectively, as free agents, just has Cy Young caliber seasons in 2015. Scherzer is in the first season of his mega deal. Greinke, who signed for $147 million in 2013, has an opt-out in the contract that allows him to become a free agent again this year. Scherzer certainly wasn't the problem in Washington, and his contract still has time to be "worth the price." Greinke helped the Dodgers win the National League West three straight seasons, something the Dodgers had never done before. However, by opting out this year, and because the Dodgers didn't win a World Series in that short time, was Greinke's signing worth it?

Prince Fielder helped lead the Detroit Tigers to the World Series in 2012, the same year he signed with the Tigers for $214 million. However, he is already an ex-Tiger, helping lead the Texas Rangers now.

Carl Crawford was signed by the Boston Red Sox in 2011 and quickly traded to the Dodgers along with Adrian Gonzalez and others. That trade helped shaped the 2013 Red Sox that won the World Series, but it was their much more affordable replacements that helped David Ortiz lead the Sox that year.

Alex Rodriguez signed his $275 million extension in 2008 and Derek Jeter signed his $189 million deal in 2001. Both were on the 2009 Yankees that won the World Series with Sabathia. A-Rod and Jeter were already Yankees at the time, but they are also the only players among the top 10 contracts to win a ring during their deal.

The Yankees 2009 team had a payroll of more than $220 million according to Baseball Prospectus. Adding Sabathia and Teixeira to a team that already had Jeter and Rodriguez is something that only the Yankees could have afforded at the time. The Dodgers, among others, are now willing to outspend the Yankees and it has led to bloated contracts being given out to players outside of the Bronx. Outside of that 2009 team the Yankees bought, there has been very little success from buying players in free agency.

Buster Posey signed a $167 million extension in 2013 and the Giants won a third World Series championship in 2014. That seems to be the smarter play for teams looking to shell out huge dollars for players. Matt Cain's extension came in 2012 for $127.5 million and he led the Giants staff that season. However, Cain's struggles since because of injuries and inconsistency show how fragile these signings can be.

For a team like the Giants, Yankees, Dodgers or Red Sox, the teams are able to withstand the blow more than others. With no salary cap in baseball, teams can spend whatever money they have, based on their profits and the revenue sharing rules that have been recently added. That revenue sharing has helped teams that don't have the same profits as some of the larger market teams, but it hasn't allowed them to overpay for multiple free agents. It also hasn't allowed them to re-sign their own for the price players can earn on the free agent market. We are seeing this now with International signings as well, as the Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, and others are battling for all of the top players.

Giancarlo Stanton will begin playing under his record setting $325 million contract next year. Will the Marlins win a third World Series during the 13 years of the contract? Will Stanton opt out the way Greinke has this off-season, and pursue a larger deal after the 2020 season. Or will Stanton be traded by 2018, when his contract bumps up to $25 million a season?

Monday, October 19, 2015

#SFGiantsMadness down to the Sweet 16

Jeremy Affeldt & Ryan Vogelsong are both still alive in #SFGiantsMadness


After a week of voting on Twitter, we are down to the Sweet 16, and this year we had some incredible upsets. Top seeds went down as fans clearly voted for this current group of Giants over past legends. Last year, the voting was pretty consistent and many top seeds advanced. There were some upsets last year as well, as fan favorites such as Mike Krukow and Hunter Pence made it to the sweet 16 last year. This year, they were joined by some other unlikely winners.







#16 seed Jeremy Affeldt and #2 seed Ryan Vogelsong took out Hall of Famers Juan Marichal and Orlando Cepeda respectively. Affeldt announced his retirement this season, and Vogelsong may have also thrown his last pitch in orange and black, so fans certainly wanted to show these men some love in the voting. However, it is still a shocker to see them dethrone legends like Marichal and Cepeda. Not only are they Hall of Famers, but they also are well known to the fan base as the Giants consistently have them be a part of every ceremony and championship parade and event. Current fans know who these legends are, even if they were too young to see them play. It just goes to show that voting is always going to be based on fan preference and sometimes that means upsets happen.

Also in the 2nd round, Sergio Romo defeated Hall of Famer Gaylord Perry in a #10 vs #2 matchup. Romo took an early lead and never relinquished it, despite a last ditch effort by fans to send more votes to Perry.


In 2014, Krukow and Pence won in the 1st round despite being #11 and #14 seeds. Only Pence made it to the 2nd round, however, because they just so happen to be in the same bracket.


This season, both were #11 seeds and both are cruising into the Sweet 16 with 2nd round victories. Krukow taking down former teammate Robby Thompson and Pence taking down Matt Williams.





Three #1 seeds remain, with Willie Mays, Willie McCovey and Barry Bonds. Only two #2 seeds remain, with Will Clark and Buster Posey. Matt Cain is also the only #3 seed left standing, as #6 seed J.T. Snow took down Bobby Bonds, along with Krukow and Pence.

The champion may still end up being the defending champion Mays, and it's possible that 7 of the 8 winners in round 3 could be a top 3 seed. However, if the previous two rounds are any indication, this is going to be madness.

Wednesday, October 14, 2015

#SFGiantsMadness is BACK and it's New and Improved!


Willie Mays won #SFGiantsMadness last season. Will he win it again in 2015?

Last off-season, thanks to Twitter follower @RedSox_Stuff, I began putting together a March Madness style bracket to celebrate all the great players in San Francisco Giants history. I decided to rank players based solely on their contributions to the Giants since their move from New York in 1958. This allowed fans to have much more knowledge of the players being seeded and also allowed for more current players to make the cut. Both of these factors made it a much more popular game.

The highlight from last year came when Giants legend Rich Aurilia chimed in on the bracket he was placed in, where he had to face off against Willie McCovey.



Ultimately, there were some close calls where some legendary players of yesteryear faced off against current World Series heroes. This 3rd round matchup was epic:



The seeding last year was also limited to Wins Above Replacement (WAR) rankings. This worked well for the most part, but short changed players who had tremendous individual seasons in short lived careers with the team and crippled relief pitchers the most.

However, at the end of the tournament last off-season, the Championship did come down to the two greatest Giants of all-time:


This year, I have added some factors that should make the rankings more true to where players fall in fans eyes.

1. Wins Above Replacement
2. World Series Rings
3. Playoff Seasons
4. Most Valuable Player Awards (2)
5. Rookie of the Year (2)
6. Cy Young Awards (2)
7. Willie Mac Award
8. All-Star Appearances
9. Gold Gloves
10. Player of the Month

Ryan Vogelsong has been with the team from 2011-2015 and has earned a 3.7 WAR in that time. He has also been to the playoffs twice, won two World Series rings, and has won the Willie Mac Award and made the All-Star team. That brings his total "value" to 9.7.

Ellis Burks, in his three seasons in San Francisco, earned a WAR of 8.8, with 1 post season appearance and winning the Willie Mac Award as well. His "value" was 10.8.

As fans look back on the careers of several key Giants, it's important to look at many factors, and because of the success of the recent teams, players on those teams are looked at more favorably. At the same time, there is so much value in what Sabermetrics has done for baseball in giving us a more true value of on field performance.

For whatever flaws may be in the new seeding format I created, one thing is certain. Whether people vote with their heart or their minds, fans get to decide for themselves.

Wednesday, October 7, 2015

Matt Cain and the 7 Underappreciated Seasons



Matt Cain has an impressive resume. He has won three world championships as a member of the San Francisco Giants, he is a three time All-Star, including starting the Midsummer Classic in 2012, and has also thrown a perfect game. Cain has been a "horse" for the Giants rotation since his call up in 2005.

In the storied history of the Giants, pitchers such as Christy Matthewson, Juan Marichal, Tim Lincecum, Jason Schmidt and Kirk Rueter have seemed to get more respect and love from the fan base. Cain always seemed to be overshadowed throughout his career.  From the huge shadow of Barry Bonds, to the bigger names in the rotation like Schmidt, Barry Zito and Lincecum. And even now with the emergence of Madison Bumgarner, who is the latest great pitcher to join the franchise's encyclopedia of greats, Cain has always seemed to be the other guy. However, from 2006-2012, Cain may have been the best pitcher the Giants have ever seen to start a career since they arrived in San Francisco in 1958.

Matt Cain, in those 7 seasons, had a 30 Wins Above Replacement, according to Baseball-Reference.com. Cain was 21 years old when he began the 2006 season and was 27 during his 2012 campaign. To put that in perspective, Greg Maddux, from 21-27, had a WAR of 32.2. Bob Gibson, who was 24 years old in his 2nd season, had a WAR of 30.2.

Cain's 30 WAR is better than Max Scherzer, Barry Zito, CC Sabathia, Jim Palmer, Andy Pettitte, David Price, Randy Johnson, Gaylord Perry, Vida Blue, Jon Lester and Roy Halladay among others in those same seasons.

To put his 30 WAR in perspective another way: Only 37 pitchers in the history of the game have a WAR of 35 or better from their 2nd through 8th seasons and only 15 pitchers since 1958. Only 23 have a WAR of 40 of higher and only 8 since 1958.  Matt Cain was on a 1st ballot Hall of Fame path through his 2012 season.

Matthewson and Marichal were far and away better than Cain in those seasons, but nobody else who's worn a Giants uniform is. Cain has been the greatest pitcher in San Francisco Giants history since Marichal and yet most fans look at everyone from Lincecum, to Bumgarner to Schmidt or even Rueter when looking at the great pitchers in Giants history.

Cain has shown an amazing consistency throughout his career with the Giants. Here is some statistical proof.


What makes Cain so special was his ability to pitch despite consistently pitching for the inferior team early in his career. Before all the championships, Cain pitched for the 2006-2009 Giants that did not reach the post-season. Just look at what Cain accomplished by age 25.


In 2007 and 2008, in particular, Cain had a win-loss record of 15-30. Despite such a dismal record, only 15 pitchers in all of baseball had a better WAR than Cain's 9.2. In that same two year stretch, Roy Halladay had a record of 36-18 with a WAR of 9.7. Cain had 28 games in those two years where he pitched 7 or more innings and gave up 3 or fewer runs, yet had a Win-Loss record of 9-9 in those 28 games with a 1.97 ERA. In the 26 games Andy Pettitte pitched in that 2 year span, he had a 16-5 record and a 1.91 ERA.

Giants fans refer to these types of losses as getting #Cained with it's own hashtag on Twitter.  Pitching 7 or more innings and giving up 3 runs or fewer is not an uncommon thing for Cain. What is also uncommon are the Giants losing in those games. 125 times in Matt Cain's career, he has hit the 7 inning and 3 runs or less mark. Cain dominated with a 1.58 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP in those games, yet is 60-21. That means the team has #Cained him 65 times. Twenty-one times, he has taken the loss and the other 44 times, he was officially given a no decision. The team has also only won 81 of those 125 games.

For comparison, Tim Hudson has 130 games over the last 10 years of 7 innings or more and three runs or less and his W-L record is 84-20, despite a near identical 1.57 ERA and 0.89 WHIP.  Winning the game is the most important part of any sport. However, in a team sport, you need teammates and Cain struggled to get the run support and defense necessary to make his great pitching reflect the scoreboard.

Baseball statistics guru @AceBallStats shared some incredible statistical proof that Matt Cain was in fact #Cained an incredible number of times.





Ultimately, when Matt Cain's career comes to a close, regardless of how it ends, baseball fans need to read between the lines and see that Cain was one of the best pitchers of his era. Cain has struggled the last three seasons to stay healthy and his last three years has called his value into question. There is no minimizing his value to the team for his first seven full seasons. Not when you look at all the numbers and all the factors and realize what Cain accomplished.


Tuesday, October 6, 2015

Giants will win in 2016 because: Even Year Magic...and talent.



The San Francisco Giants have had an interesting last 6 seasons. Three World Series championships. Three seasons without a playoff appearance. Every even season they win it all. Every odd year, they don't even make it to the dance. How can we explain this? It's very simple. Even year magic. Also, baseball is very hard and making the post-season is never easy. In pro basketball or hockey, more teams make the post-season than stay at home. In Major League baseball, only 10 of the 30 teams reach the playoffs, and two of the 10 only get guaranteed 9 innings.

There are some obvious reasons 2011, 2013 and 2015 ended without October baseball. For one, the team suffered some back breaking injuries, both literally and figuratively in each of those seasons. From Buster Posey's broken leg and Freddy Sanchez broken back in '11, to Angel Pagan's hamstring and Marco Scutaro's broken back in '13, to Hunter Pence's various injuries and Joe Panik's broken back in '15. If there was one thing we knew was going to happen in odd years, it was a critical member of the lineup was going down for several months and the team's second baseman was going to injure their back.

Fans wanted the "odd year curse" to be over this season, and had high hopes that the Giants could get back to the post-season in back to back years for the 1st time since 2002-03. There was reason to be hopeful too. Hunter Pence did play some games this season and the Giants were 34-18 in those games. That .653 winning percentage would translate to 105 wins. That doesn't mean the Giants were going to win 105 games, or even 95 games, but since the Dodgers won 92 games to win the National League West, a healthy Pence could have made a huge difference.

Also, there were those pesky 1 run games. The Giants won 19 1 run games in 2015, which is more than the 15 the Blue Jays won, but it was there 2-15 record in 1 run games down the stretch that made all the difference. The Giants had several starters out during those 17 games, including Brandon Belt, Joe Panik, Brandon Crawford, Gregor Blanco and Nori Aoki and several key pitchers out, including Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Tim Hudson, Mike Leake and Jeremy Affeldt.

Looking ahead in 2016, there is room for much optimism. First and foremost, the Giants still have 3 of the best players in baseball in the prime of their careers. Madison Bumgarner will not win the Cy Young this year, primarily because of some of the greatest pitching seasons we've seen in the National League in a decade. However, Bumgarner had an incredible season that proves he is one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. His 8.9 Wins Above Replacement over the past two seasons is 13th best in baseball. And compared to those other 12 pitchers, his ERA of 2.95 is tied for 10th best, while his FIP is 8th. He also hit 5 home runs this season and has become a legitimate threat to the lineup when he bats. His pinch hit at bats have become epic performances. His .468 Slugging percentage was higher than Evan Gattis and Prince Fielder, among others.

When healthy, Pence has been incredible for the Giants, as the 34-18 record and World Series victory in 2014 has showed in recent seasons. If Pence can get back to being an everyday player that can play 150 games, the Giants will be much improved without making any upgrades. Buster Posey is still the team's primary catcher, despite fans and media members questioning when he'll move to first base.  However, one of the main reasons he is the team's primary backstop is because he is an elite catcher. He may very well be a finalist for the Gold Glove this season, and could win it for his ability to throw out runners, call a game and frame pitches. His offense was once again MVP caliber, as he narrowly missed a 2nd batting title. If it wasn't for Bryce Harper's otherworldly season, Posey could make a case for his second MVP.

The Giants defense has always been a source of strength during their successful runs to the post-season and to the World Series, and the two main players in the greatest double play in World Series history are coming off tremendous seasons. Crawford and Panik are both going to be finalists for Gold Gloves in their own right, and Crawford also ended up leading the Giants in home runs with 21. He is the first shortstop to lead the Giants in home runs in over 100 seasons. Panik, despite a back injury that ended his season, had a tremendous sophomore year and will certainly be one of the anchors of the team going forward.

Third base was the biggest hole from last season with the departure of Pablo Sandoval, and not just because of his weight. Sandoval was a member of all three championship seasons and his absence was evident immediately. Casey McGahee, brought in to replace the "Panda" did so poorly in the first five weeks of the season, that rookie utility player Matt Duffy replaced him in the starting lineup. Duffy, who had never played third base regularly in his professional career, became an instant success, ended up winning the team's prestigious Willie Mac Award, and will be a finalist for the Rookie of the Year award. Like Posey, who will lose out to Harper, Duffy will probably lose out to Kris Bryant of the Chicago Cubs. However, Duffy has made fans, teammates and front office people forget about Sandoval and completes a homegrown infield with Posey, Crawford, Panik and Belt.

Injuries were the story all season in the outfield. Not only did the team miss Pence, but Pagan, Blanco, Aoki and Juan Perez all missed significant time. The team tried several players from outside the organization, from Justin Maxwell, who made the team out of spring, to Marlon Byrd and Alejandro De Aza, who the team traded for during the season. Byrd and Aoki could both be options to return in 2016. Blanco and Pagan are signed for next season, but will both be free agents in 2017. Pence is the only lock to be with the team in 2016, and he ended the season on the disabled list. Needless to say, the outfield has huge question marks.

The outfield isn't a huge concern for fans because they are too busy being worried about the starting rotation. For all the superlatives fans can say and make about Bumgarner, there isn't another pitcher in the rotation that is a lock to have a strong 2016. Jake Peavy is the most likely, after ending both 2014 and 2015 strong. However, there is no guarantee that Peavy will stay as effective as is the case with any pitcher in their mid-30's. Same goes for Matt Cain, a "horse" for the Giants for nearly a decade, Cain has struggled the last three seasons to stay healthy. Cain, who showed flashes of being his old self in the season finale, will need to be healthy if the team wants to battle in the National League next season. The team wants to re-sign Mike Leake, who will be a free agent this winter, but even if the Giants sign Leake, they may want to try to bring in another starter in case Cain struggles or in case some of their young pitchers, like Chris Heston, struggle. Heston, who had a very strong 1st half that included no hitting the New York Mets, struggled in the 2nd half and now his roster spot on the 25 man roster is in doubt. With Lincecum, Hudson and Ryan Vogelsong all free agents and Yusmeiro Petit due a raise in arbitration, the starting staff could look vastly different in 2016.

The bullpen and the bench are always in flux every season for every team. They are the two hardest areas of a baseball team to have consistency because of the nature of the job descriptions. The bench, in particular, because one of the hardest things to do in sports is to perform consistently when you play inconsistently. Same goes for the bullpen, where pitchers may go several day without pitching at all and other days where they pitch many days in a row. That being said, one of the strengths of the Giants these last six seasons has been the consistency of their bullpen. The "core four" as they have been named, each have three World Series rings. Affeldt is retiring, so the team will no longer have all four members of the core. Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla and Javier Lopez will all be back, but all will be in the final year of their contracts. So even if they all perform well in 2016, this could be the final year for the remaining three members of the core four. Josh Osich, another rookie who was brought up due to all the team's injuries, will look to replace Affeldt in the 'pen. Hunter Strickland, another rookie pitcher, will be asked to take on a more prominent role in 2016. George Kontos had a career year in 2015, and should be another lock for the bullpen next year.

The bench could include Byrd or Aoki or Blanco or Perez but it also could be rookies Jarrett Parker and Mac Williamson, two of the young players promoted in September. Parker and Williamson may be long shots because they have the option of returning to Sacramento and start the year in Triple-A. The team has expressed interest in bringing Byrd and Aoki back. They may platoon in LF, or they may both begin the year on the bench. The team will only start the year with five outfielders, so if Pagan isn't traded, the team will have a numbers crunch. Andrew Susac should be back healthy and his play at catcher has been encouraging. One of the bright spots of 2015 was the late emergence of Kelby Tomlinson. Tomlinson is primarily a second baseman, so the team has suggested he spend time this winter in center field. Much like Duffy in 2014, Tomlinson was initially an afterthought in 2015, but now looks like he could be a key contributor in 2016. That may be the one positive to all the injuries is the opportunities it gave Tomlinson, Osich and others.

This winter will have a lot of Hot Stove talk about the Giants going after the top pitchers on the market, such as David Price, Zach Greinke, Jordan Zimmermann and others. However, the Giants have proven over the last six seasons that they don't always need to find the best free agents. Sometimes they just need to find the right fits for their ballpark and their clubhouse. Leake and Byrd could be two of those fits.  Will those moves be enough? Will the Giants buck recent trends and overpay for the top tier free agents? Will they stick to their blueprint and try to be more strategic about who they sign? Should be a fun winter.

Friday, October 2, 2015

Jeremy Affeldt is the greatest pitcher in San Francisco Giants post-season history



Jeremy Affeldt announced his retirement on Thursday, and it's left Giants fans with many talking points. Most of them center around Affeldt's seven years with the team and more specifically, his time in the post-season. For all the acclaim and fanfare Tim Lincecum received in 2010, Matt Cain earned in 2012 and Madison Bumgarner deserved in 2014, no pitcher was more important to all three championship rings than Affeldt. In my mind, it's not even close, either. Affeldt, a member of the Giants "core four" along with Javier Lopez, Sergio Romo, and Santiago Casilla, was at his absolute best when it mattered most. His consecutive game scoreless streak in the post-season is second best all-time, just one game behind Mariano Rivera. Ultimately, he did not allow a run in his final 22 appearances in the post-season. He was dominant throughout the playoffs during all three championship runs and he had signature moments in every championship that may have been the most critical moments of each.

Game 6 of the NLCS vs Philadelphia in 2010
During the 1st improbable run in 2010, Affeldt and his teammates faced the powerful Philadelphia Phillies and based on all the experts, were just too good for the band of misfits that were the Giants. Keith Law and Buster Olney had the Phillies winning in 5, Rob Neyer, Karl Ravech had them in 6 and Jayson Stark and Tim Kurkjian had them in 7. Fast forward to Game 6 with the certain to lose Giants up 3 games to 2 and a chance to clinch.  Giants general manger Brian Sabean, manager Bruce Bochy and pitching coach Dave Righetti had talked before the game about what to do if starting pitcher Jonathan Sanchez struggled. With such a left handed lineup as Philadelphia had, the plan was to go with Affeldt, Bumgarner and Lopez, all lefties, in relief roles if necessary. Sanchez struggled. He also got frustrated, and for no apparent reason got upset with Chase Utley and it led to the benches clearing. When benches clear in baseball, so do bullpens. Every member of the bullpen ran onto the field, except for one. Affeldt. Mark Gardner, the Giants bullpen coach, told Affeldt to stay in the 'pen and start throwing because he knew Sanchez was going to be taken out of the game. Affeldt was going to replace him and he needed to be focused on the task at hand. The task: 2 on and no out in a 2-2 game in the 3rd inning. Affeldt, normally a setup man who was more used to pitching in the last three innings, was asked to pitch in the 3rd inning. He struck out Ryan Howard on a high fastball, made Jayson Werth flyout to Cody Ross in right and then forced Shane Victorino to ground out to Aubrey Huff at first and the inning was over. He again went three-up-three-down in the 4th inning and his two scoreless frames helped the Giants keep the game locked at 2-2 after 4 innings. The Giants would go on to win the game thanks in large part to Juan Uribe's 8th inning home run, but it was Affeldt's brilliance in the 3rd and 4th innings that saved the day and led to the Giants first trip to the World Series in 8 years.

Click Here to watch Jeremy Affeldt go 6 up 6 down vs the Phillies.

Game 4 of the World Series vs Detroit in 2012
Affeldt was called into the 8th inning of Game 4 of the World Series in 2012 to face the heart of the Tigers order. Again, the game was tied, this time 3-3. Even though Affeldt was left handed, he had been called on many times in the past by Bochy to get out tough right handed hitters. This would be the toughest test yet of that faith, as Affeldt began the inning facing triple crown winner, Miguel Cabrera. Affeldt struck him out swinging on a nasty 0-2 breaking ball. Prince Fielder was up next and struck out swinging as well, and after Delmon Young did the same, it was the most impressive inning of Affeldt's post-season career. The Giants would go on to win the World Series that night in the 10th inning.

Click Here to watch Jeremy Affeldt strike out the side.

Game 7 of the World Series vs Kansas City in 2014
Game 7 began like a storybook for 39 year old Tim Hudson. He had waited 16 seasons to pitch in the World Series and here he was being asked to pitch Game 7. The game every kid dreams of playing in when they are dreaming in the backyard. However, much like the night for Jonathan Sanchez 5 years earlier, Hudson got hit hard early and before the 2nd inning was over, it was deja vu all over again for Affeldt. Bochy had once again mentioned to Affeldt before the game that if he needed to take his starting pitcher out early, he would go to him first. Affeldt didn't expect to be called on in the 2nd inning, but like the previous 21 appearances with the Giants, he wasn't going to let the team down. With 2 on and 2 out in the 2nd inning, Affeldt got Nori Aoki to ground out and the inning was over. The next two innings included two double plays, including Joe Panik's glove flip to Brandon Crawford that may go down as one of the greatest double plays in World Series history. Affeldt, often considered a ground ball pitcher throughout his career, forced ground balls to one of the best infields he had ever pitched in front of and once again, Affeldt did the job.
This game has become Affeldt's best moment in professional sports. He said as much in the press conference to announce his retirement and in post game interviews that night for how his career had come full circle. Affeldt began his professional career in Kansas City and didn't like the way his tenure there ended. To be named the winning pitcher of Game 7 that night in Kansas City completed a journey that has made him San Francisco's greatest post-season pitcher in the 57 years the team has been in the city by the Bay.

Wednesday, August 5, 2015

The Legend of Duffman: From Pinch Runner to #3 Hitter in 7 months


San Francisco Giants fans didn't know what to expect from third base this season after losing the team's primary third baseman, Pablo Sandoval in free agency. Neither did the Giants, as they made a trade for Casey McGehee after losing out on Sandoval. But just five weeks into the season, McGehee was out as the everyday guy, and Matt Duffy was in. Duffy, who wasn't a lock to even make the 25 roster, forced his way onto the roster with a strong Spring.

During the 2014 post-season, Duffy became best known for scoring from second base on a wild pitch. Duffy was the team's primary pinch hitter during their 2014 championship run, but nobody saw the 2015 version of Duffy coming. Duffy has gone from a pinch hitter/runner in October, to a legitimate Rookie of the Year Candidate as the everyday third baseman for a contending team. His 3.5 WAR so far this season is second to only Gold Glove winner Nolan Arenado (4.0) among third baseman in the National League and right with All-Star starter Todd Frazier at 3.4. Two players he is well in front of are top rookies Kris Bryant (2.7) and Joc Pederson (2.3) who are likely to receive many votes for Rookie of the Year. Duffy has outperformed them despite not starting the first five weeks of the season.

He might not even be the most popular Duffy among Giants fans, because every fan who follows Matt on Instagram has met his cat Skeeter, who might weigh more than he does. So where did Matt Duffy come from? I wanted to learn more about the #Duffman as he is commonly referred to in San Francisco.

I interviewed Mac Williamson, a former teammate of Matt's while he was in the minor leagues as well as former play-by-play announcer Jon Laaser, who called Duffy's games during his time with the Richmond Flying Squirrels in the Eastern League.

1. What kind of teammate was Matt Duffy?

Mac Williamson - One of the best teammates I've ever had. Regardless of the game he's having, he knows how to remain positive. He makes everyone better 1. First impressions of Duffy when he arrived in Richmond?

Jon Laaser - I think my first impression was like everybody else's in that you see this extremely skinny guy, and you're thinking that there is no way he is going to hold up over the course of a season. On a side note, his teammates with the Squirrels called him "bones" as a nickname. I don't think that one has made it to the big leagues along with him. He was somewhat of an unknown commodity when he arrived as well in that he hadn't received any preseason love from the prospect publications. We were actually kind of looking at it as the first time we hadn't had a prospect shortstop since the Squirrels began (Brandon Crawford, Ehire Adrianza, Nick Noonan).

 2. Any games or moments stand out early on that had him pegged as a future major leaguer?

Mac Williamson - Every game. Even when stats didn't show it, he was solid day in and day out. Just like he is now. He can go 0-4 but hit 3 lasers. He really knows how to put together good at bats.

Jon Laaser - The entire first month of April really. He had the most impressive first month of any guy that had come up to Double-A to hit at The Diamond, which is a notorious pitcher's park, and in the colder environment of the Eastern League. None of it seemed to phase him. I was particularly impressed with the way he made rapid adjustments to the way the league pitched him. Away for the first couple of weeks, then started to pound him in. It didn't really seem to matter to him, and I remember he expressed to me that he had confidence in either side of the plate. However, the one moment that sticks out was a session he was having with Squirrels' hitting coach Ken Joyce in The Diamond batting tunnel. They were working on weight transfer, and just seeing the subtle difference in where he was loading his lower half. It wasn't necessarily the lesson, but then seeing how quickly he took that to the game with him was remarkable.  

3. How does he carry himself off the field that you've seen?

Jon Laaser - Duff, and I call him that because I consider him a friend, is what we refer to as a "great dude." That is the highest form of praise we have in baseball. Really low-key and unassuming at all times, but a guy that his teammates emulated because of his play. He was very popular in the clubhouse, but was also disarming due to his physical stature or lack thereof. Not to say he was a saint mind you. He could get a subtle cheap shot in when he needed to for sure.  

4. Did you see his power bat coming at all?

Mac Williamson - He had gap to gap power and occasional home run power, but he's learned how to use his legs and get the most out of his swing.

Jon Laaser - What always struck me about Matt was his forearms. You'll notice this about Kelby Tomlinson as well. Neither are big guys, but they have forearm strength that allows them to drive the ball quite a bit more than you would expect. With that said, I can't say that I saw this amount of power coming. The ability to drive the ball to the alleys and corners though definitely. You could see that from the crispness of the line drives that he hit, both in BP and in the game.  

5. Could you have envisioned him being a #3 hitter for a playoff contending team?

Mac Williamson - I didn't think he would be the 3 hitter this soon, but would never have ruled it out. He's a quick learner and a very intellectual player.

Jon Laaser - I'm just going to simply say no to that. I wish I could say that I had a foresight that scouts and the Giants didn't see, but that wouldn't be true. I did see Major League potential, but it would be a lie to say that I thought he would become the anchor of an offense, particularly this quickly!  

6. What is your favorite Matt Duffy story?

Jon Laaser - My favorite story was the day before he was called up to the big leagues. Our field staff and I had been informed that he was going up the following day, and were sitting on that information. Obviously, Matt had no idea. He came into the training room and was having an internal debate as to whether he should buy this new backpack or not. He was going back and forth trying to talk himself into spending the 75 bucks, or whatever it was, to buy it for himself. He was talking to trainer, David Getsoff, and me, but was really just trying to convince himself. Meanwhile, not being a bonus-baby, he was pretty strapped for cash as most minor league players are. Finally, after about 20 minutes of debate, I just basically said "Matt, you deserve the backpack, buy the backpack, I'll spot you if you need it." He liked that, and set off to order the backpack, but about 10 minutes later returned and said "I'm going to hold off...I just can't do it." That's him, blue-collar player. I'm pretty sure he got that backpack, or a nicer one, not long after.  

7. I look at Duffy as the prototype "baseball player," in that he doesn't look the part physically but he does everything on the field you'd ask for in a ballplayer? How would you "define" Duffy?

Jon Laaser - Grinder is the best description of him from an outward sense. However, I don't think that really does him justice. Everybody thinks because he doesn't look the part it's harder for him. I think that's true in that it is harder for him to get respect. But, I'd put his natural ability and baseball IQ up against anybody. Obviously, like everybody else he had to put in a ton of work, but his natural talent for the game is undeniable.

Ultimately, Williamson summed it up when describing Duffy to me. He said "he's one of the best guys you'll ever come in contact with. Can't say enough good things about him." So did Bruce Bochy when asked about Duffy earlier this week. "He found a way to get it done, and that’s what you love about him,” Bochy said. "He grinds out every at-bat."

So whether you call him Matt Duffy or Duffman, whether you think he's a grinder or just a baseball player, or whether you think he's the Rookie of the Year, the praise for him will continue to flood because nobody can say enough good things about him, especially Giants fans.

Tuesday, August 4, 2015

Buster Posey is an MVP Candidate again

As the Giants try to defend their championship for the third time in the last five years, the face of their franchise is quietly having his second MVP worthy season of his career. The 2012 Most Valuable Player already has more home runs and runs batted in this season than he did in all of 2013. He has only struck out 33 times this season while hitting a slashline of .327/.386/.507. His .893 OPS is the second highest of his career since his MVP campaign of 2012 of .957.

His defense this season is even better than three years ago. That is what set him apart in 2012. His ability to catch a top pitching staff is what led most voters to choose Posey for the award over Ryan Braun and others.

Posey has an impressive trophy case already in his young career, with three world series rings, an MVP, a Comeback Player of the Year award, All-Star appearances and Silver Sluggers. Winning a second MVP, however, would put him a step closer to a path that few catchers have been to. Posey has often been compared to Hall of Famers like Johnny Bench and Yogi Berra, and winning multiple MVP awards is something Posey must do for that conversation to continue. Bench and Berra not only own many World Series rings like Posey does, but they also won multiple MVP's which Posey has yet to do.



This season, the other candidates include Bryce Harper, Paul Goldschmidt, and pitchers like Zach Greinke and Max Scherzer. Last year when Clayton Kershaw won the award, there weren't any legitimate hitters to compete with his historic season. This year, Harper, Goldschmidt and Posey are all deserving of the award.

Based on Wins Above Replacement, Harper (6.9) is the choice over Greinke (6.7) with a slim lead. Goldschmidt, who plays for a below .500 team has a WAR of 6.1, while Posey is at 5.3.  Harper could end up winning in a landslide because his Nationals are competing for the playoffs and his numbers suggest he has far and away the best hitter. But a lot can happen in August and September, and voters in years past would suggest that those months mean more in their final tally. If Harper continues to produce, Posey could be on the outside looking in come awards season. However, if Posey continues to perform the way he has since the All-Star break, we may be seeing a second MVP for the defending champs best player.