Jake Peavy, Matt Cain and the Giant Problem

Jake Peavy and Matt Cain are struggling. They have been bad enough in the first month of the season, that fans want them removed from the starting rotation. Trying to find two worthy replacements in May is hard enough, but trying to figure out what is wrong is even more difficult.

According to Jacob Fagan of Baseball Essential, Peavy and Cain have combined for an 8.10 ERA and a 5.15 FIP, which are brutal numbers for two veteran pitchers.

Bum, Cueto, Shark have a 3.34 ERA, 3.10 FIP

Cain, Peavy have an 8.10 ERA, 5.15 FIP

Overall, SFG SP have a 5.10 ERA, 3.79 FIP #misleading

— Jacob Fagan (@jacobfagan) May 6, 2016

With numbers like that, it is no wonder fans have been calling into the the local sports call in shows and demanding something be done. Peavy and Cain both struggled with injuries last season and came into 2016 healthy. Peavy, when healthy, was good last year and there was optimism that his numbers could be strong this season. Cain, who has been injured for parts of the last three seasons, had a setback during Spring Training and didn't return to the mound until right before the start of the season.

The Giants added free agent starting pitchers Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija in the off-season, so there was less concern about Peavy and Cain. Because they wouldn't be asked to be at the front end of the rotation, there would be pitchers to back them up if they struggled. Unfortunately for Peavy, Cain and the Giants, the struggles have been bad enough that the Giants are 1-9 in the last 10 starts between the two.

Surprisingly, the Giants are still in 1st place because of how well Madison Bumgarner, Cueto and Samardzija and because the rest of the National League West is also struggling. This is also another reason for concern because most of the games so far this season has been against the NL West and the road the rest of the way will be tougher.

To make matters more intriguing, Tim Lincecum is scheduled to pitch in front of scouts today. Lincecum, the former two time Cy Young award winner for the Giants, would be a savoir if he can be productive once again for the orange and black.

So who is already in the system that might help? According to Connor Penfold of Giant Potential, there are a few possible options in the minor league system. Former 1st round pick of the Toronto Blue Jays, Ricky Romero, is currently pitching in Triple-A along with Chris Heston and Clayton Blackburn. All three have struggled so far in Sacramento this season, so there is no clear cut answer.

In the case that Jake Peavy needs a "DL" stint, who can #SFGiants call on? Here are five viable options. https://t.co/Yl7wyCghY9

— GIANT Potential (@giant_potential) May 4, 2016

Brian Murphy, co-host of the Murph & Mac show on KNBR, brought up a good comparison to the Peavy and Cain problem from a decade earlier. In 2004, Kirk Rueter was 9-12 with a 4.73 ERA and 4.95 FIP. Rueter was not only a fan favorite since his arrival from the Montreal Expos in 1996, but he also was productive. Rueter ended his Giants career with the most wins by a left handed pitcher in team history. He never had ace "stuff" but he always seemed to keep the Giants in games, field his position and find ways to win. However, in 2004, the winning slowed. By 2005, Rueter stopped being effective. He went 2-7 with a 5.95 ERA and a 5.35 FIP. After 8 straight seasons of at least 27 starts and 7 of the those 8 with at least 32, he ended 2005 with only 18.

Rueter had been such an important part of those previous 8 seasons, that seeing his production fall so dramatically was tough. The team wanted to give him the chance to turn things around. Mike Krukow, a former Giants ace himself and current team broadcaster always points out that there are only so many innings in a pitcher's arm. 2005 was the final season for Rueter as a Giant in part because his arm ran out of innings. 

2005 wasn't a great year for the San Francisco Giants either, and one of the reasons that Rueter still started 18 times despite poor numbers might have been because of the entire team's lack of success. In Peavy and Cain's case, the team is still in first place and can't afford to fall out of the race. With so much talent on the roster, the Giants will either need Peavy and Cain to turn things around themselves or find replacements before it's too late. The question for Bruce Bochy, Bobby Evans, Brian Sabean and the rest of the Giants decision makers will be how many more starts for Peavy and Cain in 2016.

Of course, looking at things another way, Murphy did point out that winning 3 out of 5 is a great way to make the post season.

Here's my new radical #SFGiants theory.
Bum, Cueto, Samardzija = Win Day.
4/5 spots = Lose Day.
3-2 every 5 = .600 win pct. 97 wins.
Boom.

— Brian Murphy (@knbrmurph) May 6, 2016

Johnny Cueto is Already a Fan Favorite

 

Johnny Cueto was a surprise signing by the San Francisco Giants in the off-season. After inking Jeff Samardzija to a $90 million contract earlier in the winter, fans weren't sure what the Giants would do with their other open spot in the rotation.

Would they give the job to Chris Heston, who threw a no hitter last year in a strong 1st half of his rookie season? Would they try to bring back Tim Lincecum or Ryan Vogelsong for one last season? Would they sign a less heralded pitcher to put at the back end of the rotation, hoping for lightning in a bottle? Instead, the Giants did none of those things and signed Cueto for $130 million and placed him right behind ace Madison Bumgarner in the rotation.

The move has paid off early on as the Giants are 3-0 in his starts and his 21 1/3 innings pitched lead the staff. He has pitched at least 7 innings in every start, including his first start against the rival Los Angeles Dodgers where he gave up 5 runs in the first inning and still went another 6 innings.

Beating the Dodgers twice, the second time at Dodger Stadium, is the fastest way to any Giants fan's heart. But it's the way he's won and how he goes about his business that has made him an instant star in the eyes of the fans. He refuses to be conventional on the mound, from quick pitching, to shimmying before he throws, to all sorts of other quirks before he pitches. All of these motions are designed to disrupt the hitters timing and make the batter uncomfortable. It's been working.



Cueto is a defensive player's best friend as he seems to hate taking any time between pitches. His insistence to remove his hat the second he is allowed to after an inning ends will catch on real quick at AT&T. I could see the crowd removing their caps at the end of an inning as a tribute to Cueto as he walks back into the dugout.

Ultimately, production is always longer lasting than showmanship and entertainment. But this is a game and this is a fan's entertainment dollar. Right now, if you asked a fan who they would pay to see pitch, most might still say Madison Bumgarner, not only for his ability on the mound, but to see him swing the lumber at the plate as well.

Cueto, at the moment, has produced more than any other pitcher in the rotation, and if he continues to produce, his pitching alone will become the star of the show at 24 Willie Mays Plaza.

BREAKING NEWS: Matt Cain has Cyst Removed from Right Arm

The San Francisco Giants announced this morning that Matt Cain had a cyst removed from his right arm and will resume baseball activities in ten days.

Matt Cain had a cyst removed from his right upper arm. He will start therapy in AZ & is expected to return to throwing in 10 days. #SFGiants

— San Francisco Giants (@SFGiants) February 25, 2016

Andrew Baggarly reported as well that the procedure was done this morning by team doctors according to General Manager Bobby Evans.

Cain had a cyst removed today from his R upper arm in SF by team physician Dr Ken Akizuki. — Andrew Baggarly (@extrabaggs) February 25, 2016

Any other pitcher in the rotation would be looked at as a minor setback, but Cain has had setbacks for the last three seasons. From the All-Star break in 2013 through the end of last season, Cain's right arm has been evaluated and surgically repaired several times and now his spot in the rotation may be in jeopardy.

Cain has already been penciled into the #5 spot in the rotation, but with Chris Heston still on the roster, it is likely that Cain won't be rushed back. Heston started 31 games last season and was one of the team's most reliable pitchers the first half of the season, including a no-hitter vs the eventual National League Champion Mets. Heston did struggle after the All-Star break, but his experience last year should make it a fairly simple decision for Bruce Bochy if the team decides to start Cain on the disabled list.

When the San Francisco Giants won the World Series in 2012, Matt Cain was their ace. He was the starting pitcher for every clinching game that post-season, started the All-Star game in July and threw a perfect game. It was his most successful season professionally, where he went 16-5 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.040 WHIP.

Cain had established himself as one of the games top pitchers and his first seven full seasons for the Giants were as good as the organization had seen since Hall of Famer Juan Marichal pitched.

It was identified several years ago that Cain had bone chips in his elbow that might someday need to be removed. Cain continued to pitch season after season with the problem and excelled. 2013 was the first time his elbow seemed to be a problem and it's a problem Cain and the Giants have battled ever since.

The Giants are loaded on paper with inning eaters in their rotation and Cain has always prided himself on taking the ball every fifth day and giving his team a chance to win. Sometimes the strongest compliment you can give any pitcher is that he puts his team in a position to win every time out. For 2 1/2 years, Cain has struggled to do that with the consistency he showed from 2005-2012.

Now, in 2016, it's hard to be confident that his consistency will be able to return. This latest setback may only be for 10 days, but it's been much longer since Cain has been able to be the team's most reliable pitcher.