Thursday, February 25, 2016

BREAKING NEWS: Matt Cain has Cyst Removed from Right Arm



The San Francisco Giants announced this morning that Matt Cain had a cyst removed from his right arm and will resume baseball activities in ten days.



Andrew Baggarly reported as well that the procedure was done this morning by team doctors according to General Manager Bobby Evans.




Any other pitcher in the rotation would be looked at as a minor setback, but Cain has had setbacks for the last three seasons. From the All-Star break in 2013 through the end of last season, Cain's right arm has been evaluated and surgically repaired several times and now his spot in the rotation may be in jeopardy.

Cain has already been penciled into the #5 spot in the rotation, but with Chris Heston still on the roster, it is likely that Cain won't be rushed back. Heston started 31 games last season and was one of the team's most reliable pitchers the first half of the season, including a no-hitter vs the eventual National League Champion Mets. Heston did struggle after the All-Star break, but his experience last year should make it a fairly simple decision for Bruce Bochy if the team decides to start Cain on the disabled list.

When the San Francisco Giants won the World Series in 2012, Matt Cain was their ace. He was the starting pitcher for every clinching game that post-season, started the All-Star game in July and threw a perfect game. It was his most successful season professionally, where he went 16-5 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.040 WHIP.

Cain had established himself as one of the games top pitchers and his first seven full seasons for the Giants were as good as the organization had seen since Hall of Famer Juan Marichal pitched.

It was identified several years ago that Cain had bone chips in his elbow that might someday need to be removed. Cain continued to pitch season after season with the problem and excelled. 2013 was the first time his elbow seemed to be a problem and it's a problem Cain and the Giants have battled ever since.

The Giants are loaded on paper with inning eaters in their rotation and Cain has always prided himself on taking the ball every fifth day and giving his team a chance to win. Sometimes the strongest compliment you can give any pitcher is that he puts his team in a position to win every time out. For 2 1/2 years, Cain has struggled to do that with the consistency he showed from 2005-2012.

Now, in 2016, it's hard to be confident that his consistency will be able to return. This latest setback may only be for 10 days, but it's been much longer since Cain has been able to be the team's most reliable pitcher.

Tuesday, February 23, 2016

Players accept changes because of Bruce Bochy




Angel Pagan came into camp with a lot of questions, mostly from the media. San Francisco Giants beat writers wanted to know if he was healthy, first and foremost. They wanted to know how he felt about the Giants signing Denard Span. Span was essentially signed to replace him in center field and the leadoff spot in the lineup. And they also wanted to know if he was going to accept the move to left field and down the batting order.

Pagan said all the right things to reporters today, saying "I don't have any hard feelings. I want them to know I'm on board." Pagan did admit "every player has pride, but you have to sit there and understand that at some point you have to make a move." He even went so far as to suggest he could bat behind the game's best hitting pitcher every fifth day.
Pagan didn't have any questions coming into camp because his questions had already been answered by Bruce Bochy and the Giants front office. Some fans have wanted the Giants to make a change in center field for a long time.

Pagan has struggled to stay healthy ever since he signed a new contract with the Giants after the 2012 season. And yet Bochy kept giving him chances to prove he was healthy and prove he could perform at the level they expected of their centerfielder. As Pagan's production declined at the plate and in the field, the writing may have been on the wall for a change, but Bochy was going to give Pagan every chance he could to prove doubters wrong. Some may look at Bochy as being foolish for this, but this is why Bochy has had so much success.

All 25 guys in a Bruce Bochy clubhouse know where they stand and what their role is and what the team's expectations are. Giving his veteran players more chances than fans may want could be one of the reasons they have missed the playoffs in three of the last six seasons. But it is also the reason they have won the World Series in three of the last six seasons. Bochy has proven this format works and is the best way to get the best out of the 25 guys he's been given. Whether he has the right 25 guys is an argument for another article, but there is no question this is how the Giants have won championships.

In 2010, Aaron Rowand and Edgar Renteria were big money players at the end of their careers. There was talk of them not making the post-season roster at all. However, Bochy saw a need for both, and Renteria proved him right with a World Series MVP. One player who didn't make the roster,
however, was Barry Zito, the team's highest paid player. Bochy chose to go with 20 year old Madison Bumgarner over Zito. However, Zito understood the move and handled it professionally. Zito knew he wasn't one of the team's top four pitchers heading into October, and also knew he had been given every chance that season to earn that job. That set the stage for every tough decision the team would have.

In 2012, Zito and Ryan Vogelsong had earned their spots in the rotation, but that meant Tim Lincecum, the team's two time Cy Young award winner, would be coming out of the bullpen. Like Zito, Lincecum handled it professionally and was incredible during the post-season in middle relief. So were Zito and Vogelsong, who shined in the National League Championship series and World Series. Zito, having been demoted two years earlier, not only knew he deserved the starts he got in 2012, but he knew he had the full support of Bochy and the front office.

There are many more examples of Bochy letting his player's play on the field determine their status, and not the opinions of anyone. All professional athletes want from their front office and their manager is to be told where they stand and given a chance. Bochy tells players what their role is, what the expectations for them are, and then backs it up by giving them a chance to prove it on the field.

Pagan comes into the 2016 season knowing he has been given many chances to regain his job in centerfield and atop the batting order. He knows the team signed Span because he didn't meet expectations. He also is being given an opportunity to win the left field job because he can still be a part of this year's team. And as we've seen many times before, we should get the best version of Pagan going forward as he tries to live up to his manager's new expectations for him.

Tuesday, February 2, 2016

What to do with Brandon Belt?


From the moment Brandon Belt burst onto the scene for the San Francisco Giants following their first championship season since moving from New York, he's been tough to figure out. He homered in his second ever game for the Giants, to dead center field, off Chad Billingsly of the rival Los Angeles Dodgers.

From that moment on, the expectations for Belt and the actual results have always varied. Fans of the Giants have either loved of hated on Belt for his ability to hit to all fields or his lack of power. His ability to field his position or is tendency to slump at the plate. No matter what the argument, Belt, more than any other Giant, has been a talking point for Giants fans. When other players slump, they don't seem to receive near as much criticism. When other players get hot, there doesn't seem to be near as much skepticism. It seems like no matter what he does, he can't win over all of the fans.

Maybe it's because he has never lived up to the power numbers fans expect from a first baseman. Or maybe it's because he has had some long stretches at the plate where he's looked lost. Or maybe it's because he's the second most popular Brandon. Or it could be simply because fans tend to stick to their opinions.

 There is some rationale for fans to want Belt traded, and it has very little to do with Belt himself. Buster Posey, the team's franchise player and All-Star catcher, has been playing some games at first base. 144 of his 706 career starts have been at first base. And according to his numbers at the plate, fans want Posey moved to first base permanently to keep his bat in the lineup and his legs strong into September and October.

The Giants have experimented with Brandon Belt in left field to keep his bat in the lineup as well, while also allowing Posey to play first. Another Giants homegrown talent, Andrew Susac, has started 53 of his 69 career games at catcher, and fans want him as the everyday guy.

Here is the problem. Unless they trade Belt for a left fielder with the production of Belt behind the plate, their lineup loses more than it gains. Also, the defense suffers at all three positions. Both Belt and Posey received Gold Glove nominations this year and Gregor Blanco in left field has been an above average defender as well. With Susac behing the plate, Posey at first and Belt in left, the team built on defense and pitching will have downgraded defensively at all three positions. 

Ultimately, Giants fans don't see what they have with Brandon Belt. In Belt's three full seasons, he has had a Wins Above Replacement of 2.8 in 2012, 4.2 in 2013, and 3.9 in 2015. His best season was 2013, where he had a slashline of .289/.360/.481 with an OPS of .841. Last season, he had a near identical slashline of .280/.356/.478 with an OPS of .834. In the Giants two World Series seasons of 2012 and 2014, Belt played in 32 post-season games. He had a slashline of .245/.349/.355 with an OPS of .703 which also included an 18th inning home run vs the Nationals to help the Giants advance in 2014.

At first glance, those numbers aren't overwhelming. They are good. They are productive. They are, as the stat would suggest, above replacement. This is the whole reason the Giants should keep Belt. It wasn't that long ago that the Giants were lost at first base.  

J.T. Snow last played first base regularly for the Giants in 2005 and the Giants replaced Snow through the years with Lance Niekro, Shea Hillenbrand, Ryan Klesko, John Bowker and Travis Ishikawa, among others. Ishikawa's WAR of 0.9 in 2009 equaled Brandon Belt's worst seasons, where he only played 63 games in 2011 and 61 games in 2014. He shared time with Aubrey Huff in 2011 and was out with injuries in 2014. The only other player above replacement between 2005 and 2009 was Klesko's WAR of 0.3 in 2007. Bowker's WAR of -1.2, on the other hand, was the low point in 2008.

Belt might not be putting up All-Star numbers so far in his career. He might be overshadowed by teammates at the plate and in the field. And he might seem like he should be the odd man out in the Giants lineup. However, if you look at the recent past and you look at what Belt has done by comparison, it's easy to see why the Giants have stuck with Belt since 2011. It's also easy to see why trying to replace Belt would be tough to do.